Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
INDIANA WILL TRACK EAST...AND COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT.  SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR EAST COAST AND TRACK
NORTHEAST.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT MAY
HAVE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.  MAY
EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH OVER HIGHEST PEAKS FOR SOME FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIP.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL LET WARNINGS/ADVISORIES EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION STILL ON TRACK FOR MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WITH UPPER AIR FLOW
AND ACCOMPANYING HEIGHTS BECOMING MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER
PATTERN. EFFECTS OF SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTER WHICH UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH WELL ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A SYSTEM DOES APPROACH BY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS
POINT. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SUNDAY HOWEVER. FOR
TEMPS...AGAIN DID NOT DEVIATE TOO SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MAV/MEX
GUIDANCE BUT DID BUMP UP MAX VALUES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANTICIPATED NEAR-SUMMERTIME HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  53  42  67  39 /  30  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  51  40  63  39 /  40  30  20   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  50  40  65  37 /  40  30  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              43  53  40  60  34 /  50  40  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

LDW/LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
511 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-290915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
511 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010 /411 AM CDT SUN MAR 28 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE
WINDS MAY BECOME DAMAGING...DOWNING TREES AND
POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT DUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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