River Flood Warning 7, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
340 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE
OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TN TN TO
OVER MRX CWA EARLY SAT. LOW LEVEL TROF SLANTS WESTWARD FROM SFC LOW
TO UPPER LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVE AS LOW PULLS
AWAY. MOUNTAIN WAVE MATERIALIZED BRIEFLY THIS AFTN CAUSING A JUMP IN
TEMPS AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. WIDESPREAD LIQUID PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO
GET SOME UPPER SUPPORT EARLY THIS EVENING BUT QPF LOOKS TOO LOW FOR
FLOOD TROUBLE. MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
AREA TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TIMING ON WINTER SNOW ADVISORY TO PUSH IT
BACK A FEW HOURS. FREEZING LEVEL WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. INITIAL MELTING MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. MOISTURE IN NOT IN FAVOR SNOW GROWTH REGION
SO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED. SOME CAPE ALONG SMOKIES
WILL AID BRIEF SHORT OF UPSLOPE SNOWS ON SAT. TEMPS WILL COOL LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AND BE STEADY OR FALL SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SAT NGT AND SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES NWRLY. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUR WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  AN
INVERTED TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN.  WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
TUESDAY.  A SHORTWAVE THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.  WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AGAIN WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
LINGERS.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PATH...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW.
STAYED NEAR HPC/MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  41  28  45  27 /  60  30  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  39  25  41  26 /  80  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  38  24  41  25 /  80  60  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  36  22  37  17 / 100  80  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...
     HAWKINS...JOHNSON...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...
     SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
     WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

SON/GH