Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS
ERUPTED INTO POCKETS OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO
BE INITIATING ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES AND DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY
EAST. EXPECT THE ACTION TO CONTINUE POSSIBLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE EVENING BEFORE LOSING STRENGTH AS THE SURFACE SLOWLY COOLS.
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN TARGETING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTH CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROF DRIVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. MIDWEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY DECENT CONVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS COOL FRONT.
THEREFORE EDGED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA WHILE USING
GOOD CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR THURSDAY...WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE AND 850MB LOW
DEVELOPING OVER GA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROUGH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
EAST FLOW INTO THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES-
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TENNESSEE-NORTH CAROLINA STATE-
LINE. THE FLOW AROUND THE WEAK LOW WILL PRODUCE A DEEP...BUT
WEAK...EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DOWNSLOPE IN THE
VALLEY. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
CAP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BESIDES THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...WILL CALL FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE OF THIS FRONT LOW...SO WILL ONLY CALL FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  93  69  94  70 /  20  50  30  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  90  69  92  66 /  30  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  90  68  93  65 /  30  50  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  65  89  61 /  40  60  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

20/DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-161000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HOT AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT.

DMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
526 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE SURGOINSVILLE      36.50N 82.82W
06/15/2010                   HAWKINS            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
            COUNTY. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
531 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             1 W EAST BRAINERD       35.01N 85.13W
06/15/2010  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN BRAINERD AND EAST BRAINERD.
            REPORTED BY THE HAMILTON COUNTY EMA.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIKEVILLE               35.61N 85.20W
06/15/2010                   BLEDSOE            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE. MANY ROADS
            HAVE HIGH WATER ACROSS THEM. REPORTED BY THE BLEDSOE
            COUNTY EMA.

&&

GRC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
554 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE COLLEGEDALE        35.03N 85.04W
06/15/2010                   HAMILTON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN COLLEGEDALE
            AND APISON. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
605 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW BLUFF CITY        36.41N 82.30W
06/15/2010                   SULLIVAN           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN PINEY FLATS.

&&

GRC