Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN MN ATTM AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN SD. KAXN AND
KRWF WILL BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. RANDOM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP EAST OF KRWF THROUGH NORTH OF KMSP IN A ZONE OF
INCREASING LIFT AND INSTABILITY. HENCE...KSTC...KMSP AND KRNH WILL
SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH INTO KEAU
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 18Z. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY FROM 08Z-10Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THE AIRPORT THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE AIRPORT BY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS
INCREASING FURTHER TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010/

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGH...AND
EXPAND ACROSS MN TOWARD WI OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR THE HIGHEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z THURSDAY...WHEN A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD AND 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG PV FEATURE
ALSO CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LOW...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...AND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AREAS /MAINLY WEST CENTRAL
WI/ ON FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE COMPLETE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
60S...OR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER AND VERY
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE CWA-WIDE.

MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ENHANCED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AS
THE NEXT MID LEVEL LOW NEARS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY...WITH MONDAYS READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S RANGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
LOW TRACK...THE 18Z MONDAY TO 18Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
021830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
129 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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