Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
147 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE FAR WESTERN SUBURBS OF
THE TWIN CITIES EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY OF SVR
WX THIS AFTN...FOR MAINLY THE FAR SE FA...OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW SVR STORM
BASED ON SHEAR PARAMETERS. SEE SPC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...STRONG NVA WITH DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A VERY VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TOMORROW AFTN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE A WIDE AREA OF SHRA
AND EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS THE SE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVENING...AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THIS WAVE HAS A VERY STRONG PVA ANOMALY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
STATED IN EARLY AFD'S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTN WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
FETCH OF MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND DEVELOP
INSTABILITY SHRA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTN. AN
ISOLATED TSRA/SMALL HAILERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG W/NW FLOW /CAA/ WILL COMMENCE
WITH LEFT OVER MOISTURE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND THE VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW PROGGED.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SFC CDFNT HA BEEN MVG EWRD BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER XPCTD.  WND SHIFT
TO WNW NOW FM NR STC-LJF-ULM.  LOOP OF MPX RADAR SHWS THIS SHIFT
QUITE WELL.  BAND OF FAIRLY SOLID MVFR CIGS HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS
WND SHIFT WELL.  AHD OF FNT STILL CONSIDERABLE MVFR CIGS ACRS IA
INTO SE MN AND WC WI. BASES WILL CONT TO LIFT DRNG AFTN...BUT ENUF
CLOUDS MAY RMN TO SUPPRESS CONVCTN SMWT.  SHUD STILL SEE SM SHRWS
AND FEW TSTMS DRNG AFTN...MAINLY MSP AND WI TAF SITES. RADAR SHWS WK
ELEVATED RETURNS IN SW MN THEN INTO NW IA AHD OF UPR TROF. HRRR
SEEMS TO HV A GOOD HANDLE THIS SPRDG PCPN NE DRNG AFTN.

KMSP...SFC WNDS WL TRND MR SW NEXT CUPL HRS...AND THEN WNW ARND 22Z.
MOIST AMS AHD OF FNT HAS BEEN DVLPG SCT/BKN025...BUT XPCT CIGS ARND
3K BY THE TIME THEN REACH MSP. SHWRS TRYING TO DVLP IN SW MN AHD OF
UPR TROF. PUT TEMPO TSTM 21-23Z.  OTHW VFR OVRNITE WITH SFC WNDS
TURN NE BY MRNG AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/BAP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

MNZ083>085-091>093-312145-
BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-
330 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO BLUE EARTH...FARIBAULT...FREEBORN...
EASTERN MARTIN...STEELE AND WASECA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ESTHERVILLE TO KIESTER.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CEYLON.
  WILBERT.
  EMMONS.
  FAIRMONT.
  FROST.
  GLENVILLE.
  ALBERT LEA.
  BLUE EARTH.
  GOOD THUNDER.
  CLARKS GROVE.
  WASECA.
  OWATONNA.
  INTERSTATES 90 AND 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RUNOFF
PROBLEMS AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9477 4408 9414 4419 9415 4416 9404
      4419 9400 4422 9402 4424 9401 4424 9378
      4420 9377 4419 9304 4349 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 237DEG 25KT 4332 9481 4337 9390

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

MNZ092-093-312245-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER FARIBAULT AND FREEBORN
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BLUE EARTH MINNESOTA TO
LAKE MILLS IOWA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HUNTLEY.
  WINNEBAGO.
  KIESTER.
  DELAVAN.
  EMMONS.
  EASTON.
  MINNESOTA LAKE.
  GLENVILLE.
  ALBERT LEA.
  INTERSTATES 35 AND 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9425 4351 9424 4385 9425 4385 9305
      4350 9305 4349 9306 4349 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 255DEG 29KT 4367 9419 4340 9360