Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...

VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 6 AM. HAVE
ISSUED NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND MAY NEED TO WATCH AREAS
OF WISCONSIN THAT RECEIVED THE FLOODING A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SHOULD
GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER THE CURRENT MCS SLOWLY
WEAKENS OVER WI. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING
IN THE VCNTY OF SOUTHERN MN SO THIS WILL BE A FOCUS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS FASTER IN BRINGING THE
ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT IN A BAND OF
STRONGER 500 MB WINDS NOSING ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN A HINT OF
COUPLING BETWEEN THE SEGMENTS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SI FORECAST TO
BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER BY
EVENING...WHICH ALSO DIRECTS SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL HOWEVER...ADD ABOUT 3 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SEVERE IN SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI BUT THE DEEPER INSTABILITY IN
THAT 4K-6K ML MUCAPE RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE MORE INTO IOWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES HOWEVER... LOOK LIKE THE 850 MB WINDS
WILL BACK A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A DECENT CROSS OVER BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS TONIGHT.

THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AT LEAST THE FLOOD THREAT...SO WILL LET THE WATCH GO AT
THAT TIME.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

AVIATION CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FIRST 6 HRS AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH
CEILINGS/VSBYS AND VRB WNDS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CLUSTER OF
TSRA AT STC BY 12Z...AND AT MSP/RNH BETWEEN 14-15Z. OTHERWISE 12Z
TAFS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE FIRST 6 HRS DUE TO PROBLEMS
RELATED TO THE VCTS.

INITIALLY...WILL BE HOLDING ONTO TSRA AT STC/MSP/RHN/EAU...WITH
ONLY CBS AT AXN/RWF. TSRA/SHRA IN SD/NE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
AFFECT WESTERN MN DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING CAP WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE TSRA COVERAGE AT
LEAST UNTIL AFT 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR BOTH AXN/RWF DUE TO THIS REASON BEFORE 18Z.

AS FOR STC/RNH/MSP/EAU...ONGOING TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
15Z...WITH ONLY VCSH THRU THE EARLY AFTN. MORE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTN FOR EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI. HOWEVER...PIN-POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...SO LEFT OUT ANY TEMPORARY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS REASON. UPDATES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS MORE
INFORMATION ON REGIONAL RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP.
BETWEEN 00-06Z/14... MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
FAR EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI WITH MOST AREAS IN THE WESTERN FA...VFR
WITH LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
IN FG/BR AND LIFR CEILINGS.

MSP...CLUSTER OF TSRA WEST OF STC WILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT BETWEEN
14-15Z WITH VRB WNDS AND CEILINGS ARND 2000 FT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WND...BECOMING MORE S/SE DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING...THEN S/SW DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE
AREA. CBS/TSRA WILL BE LIKELY IN THE AFTN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A PROBLEM AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.
DID NOT WANT TO ADD ANY MORE INFORMATION TO MSP TAF AFT 21Z...BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY CBS/TSRA WILL LIKELY END BETWEEN 00Z-03Z/14.
FG/BR WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM BY THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WNDS LIGHTENING UP. LATER
SHIFTS CAN UPDATE AS NEEDED. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
     STEELE.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-
     EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

JPR/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
140930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER POTENTIALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

OTHERWISE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
MINNESOTA TODAY WITH MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
INCLUDING TORNADOES WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM ST CLOUD TO
MANKATO...AND BLUE EARTH. IN ADDITION...MORE TORRENTIAL RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 AM     HAIL             LESTER PRAIRIE          44.88N 94.04W
08/13/2010  M1.50 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

MNZ047>049-055-057-131115-
KANDIYOHI-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-
525 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO KANDIYOHI...POPE...STEARNS...STEVENS
AND SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM CDT...

AT 521 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORRIS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF ALBERTA. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MORRIS.
  CYRUS.
  LOWRY.
  STARBUCK.
  LONG BEACH.
  SWIFT FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9512 4524 9517 4544 9602 4575 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 284DEG 41KT 4559 9583

BAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HAIL             6 SW STARBUCK           45.56N 95.63W
08/13/2010  E0.75 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

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