Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MANY CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST IS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST MN CONTINUES TO RIDE A BIT SOUTH OF OF EAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE MORNING. 00Z 4KM
NMM WRF REFLECTIVITY HAS THIS SYSTEM RIDING EAST AND INTO WC WI BY
NOON AND REDEVELOPING RAPIDLY INTO A BOW TYPE STRUCTURE. WILL HAVE
TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS OVER WC WI INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
WILL CARRY CHANCE OF SEVERE AS WELL. SURFACE FRONT STILL IS FCST
TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
ANTICIPATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CIRRUS THIN
AS COMPLEX EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST. SHOULD HEAT NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
AT LEAST...HEAT INDICIES WILL BE RANGING AROUND 100F FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. KALKSTEIN WAS INDICATING THE METRO MOVING
INTO THE WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/CLOUD COVER...WILL
HIGHLIGHT SOUTHERN REGION WITH AN ADVISORY.

FRONT DROPS SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS ALL
POINTING AT POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR THE
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. CAP IS BUILDING INTO SW
MN THIS MORNING AND IS FCST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE THIS ERODES AS UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR...AND
THERE MAY BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTEND
WITH.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SLGT CHANCE
REMAIN IN SC MN EARLY WED. OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM
INTO THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASE
POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS AS MODELS ARE TRENDING ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL
JETS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. TSRA CONTINUE TO
REKINDLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS STORMS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE TAF SITES. FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL MN AND
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES AREA...AND THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ABOVE 3500
FEET AGL. SOME PATCHY MVFR NEAR KAXN. IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TSRA...EXPECT LOWER MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS.  CONDS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS
COULD
PUSH CLOSE TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS MORNING. THUS...AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA IS PSBL THROUGH MID OR LATE MORNING. THE BEST TIME FOR
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 PM.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT- FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SIBLEY-STEELE-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/JVM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
157 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ041>044-270900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON
157 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
   BETWEEN 300 AM AND 500 AM...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
UP TO NICKEL SIZE WERE OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE DETROIT LAKES
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF
TODD...MORRISON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES BETWEEN 300 AM AND 500 AM
THIS MORNING. PERSON IN UNPROTECTED AREAS OR UNSAFE
SHELTERS...SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ041>043-271315-
DOUGLAS-MORRISON-TODD-
736 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DOUGLAS...MORRISON AND TODD
COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

AT 729 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWERVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE MELBY AREA.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BROWERVILLE.
  CUSHING.
  RANDALL.
  FLENSBURG.
  SOBIESKI.
  LITTLE FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKES GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A
VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT
ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9468 4633 9457 4631 9455 4631 9452
      4629 9443 4617 9436 4609 9407 4583 9420
      4602 9516 4635 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 289DEG 27KT 4612 9473

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

MNZ041>045-049-050-271330-
BENTON-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS-TODD-
736 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

AT 729 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWERVILLE. THESE STORM WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BROWERVILLE.
  CUSHING.
  RANDALL.
  FLENSBURG.
  SOBIESKI.
  LITTLE FALLS.

LAT...LON 4631 9455 4631 9438 4628 9435 4623 9440
      4617 9437 4616 9383 4623 9379 4624 9345
      4556 9358 4571 9460 4603 9563 4611 9555
      4611 9516 4632 9517 4638 9474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1235Z 294DEG 34KT 4612 9471