Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS MORE RAIN WHERE NONE IS NEEDED...
ACROSS SC MN. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH FOR SC MN FOR
TONIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT HEAVIEST RAINS WILL REMAIN ACROSS IA.

WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT PLUME OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING OUT OF SW U.S. THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS IA AND
WI. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE PWATS REMAIN FROM 1.75 TO AROUND 2
INCHES. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ON SOUTH EDGE OF PLUME
ACROSS S AND E IA WHERE 75 TO 80 DEGREE DWPTS FEEDING INTO WEAK
BOUNDARY. SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF E NEB HAS ALSO AIDED
CONVECTION..AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THRU THIS
EVENING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

TSTMS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING ACROSS NODAK INTO NW SODAK AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS LATE JULY UPPER TROF AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING SE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. MAY
SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN SW MN LATE EVENING. STRONG UPPER TROF
WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAINS
IN SW AND INTO SC MN LT EVE INTO TONIGHT.

QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN QPF OUTPUT TONIGHT BETWEEN NAM AND GFS.
PREFER NAM HANDLING OF LLJ IN WHICH JET IS ORIENTED MORE E-W
ACROSS IA ALONG AXIS OF HIGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GFS DEVELOPS
50 KNOT LLJ INTO SC MN BY 06Z AHD OF A SPURIOUS LOOKING 850 MB
LOW. BASED FORECAST QPF MORE TOWARD ECMWF AND SHRF SOLUTION WITH
.50 TO 1.00 QPF IN SW INTO PARTS OF SC MN MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z AS SURFACE WAVE COMES THRU AHEAD OF UPPER TROF.

HELD ONTO SOME MAINLY MORNING POPS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH
UPPER TROF STILL UPSTREAM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH NW FLOW.
SOME CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING FOG SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP BEGINS TUESDAY AS FRONT SAGS INTO AREA FROM
THE NW. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRONT
WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN NEB/SODAK. THUS...CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR
REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ON GOING CONVECTION PRECEDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MN...WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MN AND
IOWA OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KAXN...KMPX TO KRST OVERNIGHT.  CEILING LOWERING
BETWEEN 2000-4000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY LOWERING BELOW 2 MILES IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 50 TO 60 MPH
NEAR THE APEX OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. WX CONDS IMPROVING MID OR
LATE MORNING...CLOUDS/CEILING HEIGHTS LIFT TO 3500-4000 FEET AGL.

MSP...MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES.  CEILING HEIGHTS
LOWERING TO 2000-3500 FEET IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND
4000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.
&&

BAP/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
241100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE...THEN MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CANBY TO
REDWOOD FALLS TO OWATONNA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...IN WEST CENTRAL
OR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

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