Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2010

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 17, 2010Benton County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 17, 2010, 2:48 PM CDT for Benton County, Minnesota. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 17, 2010, 2:48 PM CDT (19:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 17, 2010, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN

County Benton County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1285 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 17, 1:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 1:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WAS VERY PRIMED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  THIS
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WEAK CAP OVER SOUTHWEST MN...EXPECTED TO ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...SO THE MAIN THREATS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ONCE THE CAP ERODE NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH INTERSTATE 94...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES TO
DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MN...WITH MOVES THE BULK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER BY 10 PM SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  LATER TONIGHT...MORE OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...EXPECT A
BACKWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN MN LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 2.00 TO 2.50
INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THIS AREA. EVEN WITH FORECAST QPF 3.00 OR
4.00 INCHES. IT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ON THE MAIN STEMS OF THE
RIVERS TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK.  GFS MODEL KEEPS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT EUROPEAN MODEL
KEEPS US WET THROUGH FRIDAY.  WL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...AS SEVERAL MINOR IMPULSES RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OF THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND SEVERITY
AND THE IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. CONVECTION BEGINNING IN WESTERN MN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AT
35 KTS AND ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN WRN MN...WHERE AS WE HAVE A
LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION IN WESTERN MN TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
THOUGH 20Z BEFORE BECOMING ORGANIZED INTO A LARGER COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT THE COMPLEX IN NORTH CENTRAL MN
TO GET MUCH STRONGER OR WIDESPREAD AS THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z. AFT 21Z WE
EXPECT THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
WESTERN MN DEVELOP FURTHER AND ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST /IF NOT ALL/ TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 21Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY.

KMSP...A FEW MID CLOUDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACH THE METRO AREA. DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL 22Z. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY BECOME IFR AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 4Z DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WE EXPECT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
BE TOO LIGHT IN THE TAF BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THAT CLOSELY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JM/DL

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 11:44 AM CDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1144 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
180915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1144 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INITIALLY THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. DURING THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BECOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY RETURNING BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 17, 2:05 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 NW SAUK CENTRE        45.77N 95.00W
07/17/2010                   STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

Local storm report, Jul 17, 2:13 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
213 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             5 W LONG PRAIRIE        45.98N 94.97W
07/17/2010  M1.75 INCH       TODD               MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

CARLYON

Local storm report, Jul 17, 2:37 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE OSAKIS             45.90N 95.11W
07/17/2010                   TODD               MN   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN

0225 PM     HAIL             3 NE SAUK CENTRE        45.76N 94.91W
07/17/2010  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E OSAKIS              45.87N 95.11W
07/17/2010                   TODD               MN   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN EAST END OF LAKE OSAKIS HWY 27.

&&

CARLYON

Local storm report, Jul 17, 2:43 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             3 W ST ROSA             45.73N 94.78W
07/17/2010  M1.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0236 PM     HAIL             2 N SAUK CENTRE         45.77N 94.96W
07/17/2010  M0.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0233 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E SAUK CENTRE         45.75N 94.88W
07/17/2010  M62 MPH          STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E SAUK CENTRE         45.75N 94.88W
07/17/2010                   STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 5 INCH BRANCHES DOWN ON ROAD.

0234 PM     HAIL             3 W ST ROSA             45.73N 94.78W
07/17/2010  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM     HAIL             1 W AVON                45.61N 94.47W
07/17/2010  E0.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

Local storm report, Jul 17, 2:44 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             1 N SAUK CENTRE         45.75N 94.96W
07/17/2010  M1.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

Special weather statement, Jul 17, 2:48 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
248 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

MNZ049>051-058-059-172030-
BENTON-MEEKER-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WRIGHT-
248 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

AT 244 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST JOSEPH. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ST JOSEPH.
  WAITE PARK.
  ST CLOUD.
  ST AUGUSTA.
  FAIRHAVEN.
  CLEARWATER.

LAT...LON 4571 9399 4551 9364 4522 9451 4549 9445
      4567 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 303DEG 30KT 4554 9428

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 17, 12:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kandiyohi, Swift	60 min
Jul 17, 1:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Swift	52 min
Jul 17, 1:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Todd	44 min
Jul 17, 1:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Stearns, Todd	51 min
Jul 17, 1:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Douglas, Todd	56 min
Jul 17, 1:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Douglas, Todd	47 min
Jul 17, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stearns, Todd	40 min
Jul 17, 2:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Stearns	34 min
Jul 17, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Meeker, Stearns, Wright	62 min
Jul 17, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Meeker, Stearns, Wright	62 min
Jul 17, 4:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Carver, Hennepin, Meeker, Wright	26 min
Jul 17, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Carver, Hennepin, McLeod, Wright	60 min
Jul 17, 4:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Carver, Hennepin, Wright	47 min
Jul 17, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Morrison, Todd	65 min
Jul 17, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Hennepin	46 min
Jul 17, 5:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Morrison	41 min
Jul 17, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Swift, Yellow Medicine	63 min
Jul 17, 6:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Mille Lacs, Morrison	50 min
Jul 17, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Kandiyohi, Renville, Swift, Yellow Medicine	62 min
Jul 17, 6:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Benton, Mille Lacs, Morrison	51 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2010 Every special weather statement in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.