Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FIRST 24 HRS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SHORT WAVE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINE TO CREATE AN
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

INITIALLY...VERY DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SE FA WILL LIMIT ANY
TYPE OF CONVECTION THRU NOON WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF FA DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SHRT WV
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. CURRENT POPS/WX HAVE DEPICTED THIS
SCENARIO WITH MOST AREAS DRY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
COMBINATION OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

LATEST SREF INDICATED A WEAK 85H LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS IA THIS
MORNING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEST POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SE 2/3 OF FA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED IN THE NW. AS PER
LATEST SPC DAY 1 GUIDANCE AND MODEL INTERPRETATION...HIGHER
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE LIMITED WIND SHEAR
PARAMETERS. THEREFORE...SVR WX IS NOT LIKELY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
OF ANY RELATED HAZARDOUS BEING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WNDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THESE PARAMETER MAY MODIFY A BIT THIS AFTN...SO PLEASE
SEE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE FOR MORE INFORMATION. AFT THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL BE EAST OF THE
FA WITH LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
12Z THU.

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST BY THU...WITH
A MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WITH THERE BE AN
INCREASING CHC OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ..JLT..

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE

SHWRS AND TSTMS CONT TO SPRD NE OUT OF SODAK INTO WC MN IN AREA OF
STG 850 MB THETA E ADVTN. THIS AREA EXPANDS NE INTO CNTL MN IN THE
OVRNITE BFR WKNG.  SHWRS AND CHC TSTMS WL REACH AXN NR TAF ISSUANCE
TIME WITH SHWRS PSBLY REACHING AS FAR S AS STC.  INCRSG HIGH CLDS
SHUD KEEP FOG FM LWRG MORE THAN ARND 2SM AT EAU ARND 09-12Z.  NEW
NAM POPS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON PCPN CHCS FOR WED PM AND EVE.  FVBL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WL INCRS PWATS TO ARND 1.7 INCHES ACRS SE MN AND
WC WI WED AFTN.  WK SFC FNT FM NW IA TO NR MSP WL PROVIDE A BNDRY
FOR CONVECTION WITH APRCH OF UPR TROF.  PUT TEMPO SHWR OR TSTMS AT
ALL SITES BUT AXN WED AFTN.

KMSP...CONVECTION MVG NE OUT OF SODAK WL RMN N OF MSP. HOWEVER SHWRS
AND SM TSTMS PSBL AFT ABT 20Z WITH INCRSG INSTAB VCNTY SFC TROF IN
AREA. MVNT OF UPR TROF OUT OF W DKTS TO E MN 06Z WL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO MAINTAIN POPS TIL ARND 06Z.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JLT/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
070930-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE SLOWLY SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

THE MINNESOTA RIVER...DOWNSTREAM FROM NEW ULM THROUGH SAVAGE
REMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE MINNESOTA RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FROM
NEAR NEW ULM...DOWNSTREAM TO SAVAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
203 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

MNZ054-064-070745-
LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
203 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW
MEDICINE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

AT 158 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MOVING
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED
NEAR CANBY.

WINDS NEAR 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BURR.
  CANBY.
  ST LEO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4477 9645 4483 9588 4462 9573 4462 9645
      4463 9646 4476 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 260DEG 34KT 4464 9676 4438 9659
          4403 9668

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

MNZ054-056-064-065-073-070830-
CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
251 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...
WESTERN REDWOOD...WESTERN RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 AM CDT...

AT 247 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BOYD TO
GHENT TO TYLER. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BOYD.
  SPRING CREEK.
  CLARKFIELD.
  HAZEL RUN.
  WOOD LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9544 4464 9538 4431 9559 4431 9560
      4462 9561 4462 9600 4485 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 251DEG 17KT 4479 9589 4453 9585
          4409 9618