Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STILL RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ONGOING
CONVECTION WAS DUE TO MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER MCS OR COUPLE OF MORE MCS'S TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 850 MB WIND
PROGS SHOWED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A 40-50 LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT. THE
LATEST NAM40 CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. MID AFTERNOON/EVENING FRIDAY THE WIND
FIELDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OR EVEN NORTHERLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST MN TO
JUST NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES...WHERE TWO DAY PRECIP TOTALS COULD
EXCEED OVER TWO INCHES. WITH ANY QPF FORECAST ESTIMATES...THERE
COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT EXCEED OVER THREE INCHES.

BY SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS INDICATED THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...THE BEST POPS SATURDAY
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 700 MB RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...GIVING
US A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST AREAS BY
MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY.

ONLY RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

ANOTHER COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD/NE...MOVES E/NE ACROSS MN OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HRS.

ALREADY...RWF WILL BEGIN TO SEE TSRA BY 6Z...WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOW LOW THE VSBYS WILL GET WILL BE ANOTHER PROBLEM
AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NE...MERGES
WITH THE SD SYSTEM...AND TRANSLATES E/NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 1SM +TSRA...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY AFT 12Z AS ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SD AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE
MORNING HRS. USUALLY TSRA ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX...SO LOW
CEILINGS COULD MODIFY SOME WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS TO CONTINUE LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR CEILINGS...WITH A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS...ESPECIALLY FOR
RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU AS THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THRU 18Z. WNDS WILL BE
CHAOTIC DURING TSRA...BUT THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE WNDS WILL BE
FROM THE E/SE...WITH A SLOW E/NE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTN. AFT
00Z/12...CONDITIONS WILL BE DEFINED BY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OR HOW FAR SOUTH/SE IT HAS MOVED. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA...WITH A GENERAL
N/NE FLOW AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING.

MSP...TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 7Z...WITH A PERIOD OF 2-4SM IN
TSRA THRU 13Z. HAVE PLACED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION AND LOWER
VSBYS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AFT 13Z...TIMING AND WHERE THE
CONVECTION COMPLEX LIES WILL BE A PROBLEM. THEREFORE...VCSH AND
SOME AFTN CONVECTION IS BEST AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-
EVALUATE THE TIMING AND IF ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPS. AFT
00Z/12...LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FG. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JVM/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
507 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112215-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
507 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG WINDS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OCCURRING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

MNZ065-073-110630-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

AT 1247 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF REVERE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WALNUT GROVE.
  REVERE.
  LAMBERTON.
  LUCAN.
  WANDA.
  WABASSO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9520 4447 9491 4419 9529 4419 9559
      4420 9561 4421 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 226DEG 21KT 4421 9544