Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD AND LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE IN EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL MN /TWIN CITIES/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE MORE
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE
TO THE FACT THAT 0-6KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
BACK WEST THIS EVENING TO THE DAKOTAS SFC TROUGH. EXPECT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE PROVIDES STRONG DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT PROGRESSION IS
APPEARING SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...THEREFORE
LIKELY LIMITING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA /MANKATO TO RICE LAKE AND POINTS SOUTH/...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM...WHICH IS ON TARGET TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH S0ME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES...AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH/EAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA TO THE
DAKOTAS...AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A 100+KT JET STREAK IS PROGGED...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...RATHER
THAN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF ALSO FAVORS A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH WOULD SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT TROUGH...AND ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COMPLEX OF SVR STORMS NEAR
AXN...AND HOW THIS COMPLEX TRANSLATES TO THE E/SE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...HOW WIDESPREAD DOES THIS COMPLEX DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
TWO HRS AS IT MOVES TO THE E/SE.

AXN SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR AFT 00Z...OR AT LEAST BY 01Z AS THIS
COMPLEX MOVES THRU THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AXN FOR AN HR OR TWO. AS THIS TRANSLATES TO THE
E/SE...HOW WILL THE INSTABILITY EVOLVE?? OR WILL THE TSRA WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY AT RWF/STC WITH
GUSTY WNDS AND CEILINGS ARND 2500 FEET. RNH/EAU WILL BE MAINLY CLR
OR SCT CEILINGS OF 5000 FEET THRU THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH WNDS
GENERALLY FROM THE S/SE.

MSP...HAVE KEPT TAFS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY AFT 04Z. TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM AS
MSP HAS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP TSRA IN THE
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VSBY/CEILINGS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
FACTOR AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...THESE TAFS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX NEAR AXN AND TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN SD. WILL TRY TO PINPOINT TSRA TIMING/INTENSITY AS
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112315-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE DAY.

THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES. STAY ABREAST OF FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENT AS MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND POSSIBLE
THREATS CAN BE ASCERTAINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING...AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             SW MILLERVILLE          46.07N 95.56W
07/10/2010  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W GLENWOOD            45.65N 95.42W
07/10/2010                   POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             1 SW FARWELL            45.74N 95.63W
07/10/2010  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             1 W LOWRY               45.71N 95.54W
07/10/2010  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALEXANDRIA              45.87N 95.38W
07/10/2010  M55 MPH          DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            MEASURED AT ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
748 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             STARBUCK                45.61N 95.53W
07/10/2010  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MKM