Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 10, 2010Stevens County, Swift County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2010, 6:47 PM CDT for Stevens County, Swift County, Minnesota. It was in force for 58 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2010, 6:47 PM CDT (23:47 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2010, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 183 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 10, 4:48 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	3 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1481 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -228 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1406 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

847 
WUUS53 KMPX 102347
SVRMPX
MNC149-151-110045-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0082.100710T2347Z-100711T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN STEVENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  WESTERN SWIFT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 645 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
  CHOKIO...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  MORRIS...
  CHOKIO...
  APPLETON...
  ALBERTA...
  HOLLOWAY...
  HANCOCK...
  DANVERS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGE WINDOWS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH WILL UPROOT TREES AND DOWN POWER LINES.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

&&

LAT...LON 4559 9624 4569 9576 4515 9572 4517 9610
      4519 9611 4541 9612 4541 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 267DEG 35KT 4546 9620
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 6:11 PM CDT, 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 6:11 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AIDED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD AND LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE IN EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL MN /TWIN CITIES/ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE MORE
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE
TO THE FACT THAT 0-6KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
BACK WEST THIS EVENING TO THE DAKOTAS SFC TROUGH. EXPECT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPAND INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE PROVIDES STRONG DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT PROGRESSION IS
APPEARING SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...THEREFORE
LIKELY LIMITING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA /MANKATO TO RICE LAKE AND POINTS SOUTH/...WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

PRECIP SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM...WHICH IS ON TARGET TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH S0ME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES...AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTH/EAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA TO THE
DAKOTAS...AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A 100+KT JET STREAK IS PROGGED...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...RATHER
THAN BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF ALSO FAVORS A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH WOULD SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT TROUGH...AND ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DEAL WITH A COMPLEX OF SVR STORMS NEAR
AXN...AND HOW THIS COMPLEX TRANSLATES TO THE E/SE THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...HOW WIDESPREAD DOES THIS COMPLEX DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
TWO HRS AS IT MOVES TO THE E/SE.

AXN SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR AFT 00Z...OR AT LEAST BY 01Z AS THIS
COMPLEX MOVES THRU THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AXN FOR AN HR OR TWO. AS THIS TRANSLATES TO THE
E/SE...HOW WILL THE INSTABILITY EVOLVE?? OR WILL THE TSRA WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY AT RWF/STC WITH
GUSTY WNDS AND CEILINGS ARND 2500 FEET. RNH/EAU WILL BE MAINLY CLR
OR SCT CEILINGS OF 5000 FEET THRU THE NEXT 6 HRS...WITH WNDS
GENERALLY FROM THE S/SE.

MSP...HAVE KEPT TAFS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME TSRA
ACTIVITY AFT 04Z. TIMING AND INTENSITY WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM AS
MSP HAS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP TSRA IN THE
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VSBY/CEILINGS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
FACTOR AT THIS TIME. AGAIN...THESE TAFS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX NEAR AXN AND TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN SD. WILL TRY TO PINPOINT TSRA TIMING/INTENSITY AS
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/JLT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 6:08 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
112315-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
608 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA PRIOR TO SUNSET. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING THE DAY.

THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES. STAY ABREAST OF FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENT AS MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND POSSIBLE
THREATS CAN BE ASCERTAINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS EVENING...AND MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 10, 3:33 PM CDT, 3 hours 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             MENDOTA HEIGHTS         44.88N 93.14W
07/10/2010  E0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 10, 3:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             MENDOTA HEIGHTS         44.88N 93.14W
07/10/2010  E0.50 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLT

Local storm report, Jul 10, 5:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     MORRIS                  45.59N 95.91W
07/10/2010                   STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IN MORRIS SAW FUNNEL CLOUD AT UNKNOWN DISTANCE
            NORTH NORTHEAST OF TOWN.

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 10, 5:52 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             SW MILLERVILLE          46.07N 95.56W
07/10/2010  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

Local storm report, Jul 10, 6:20 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 W GLENWOOD            45.65N 95.42W
07/10/2010                   POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LS

Local storm report, Jul 10, 6:34 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             1 SW FARWELL            45.74N 95.63W
07/10/2010  M1.75 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 6:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kanabec	65 min
Jul 10, 6:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kanabec, Mille Lacs	50 min
Jul 10, 7:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Kandiyohi	57 min
Jul 10, 8:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Meeker	45 min
Jul 10, 10:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	McLeod	54 min
Jul 10, 3:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Dakota	46 min
Jul 10, 5:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Douglas	58 min
Jul 10, 5:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Pope, Stevens	58 min
Jul 10, 5:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Douglas, Pope	62 min
Jul 10, 6:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Douglas	60 min
Jul 10, 6:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Stevens	19 min
Jul 10, 6:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Douglas, Pope	65 min
Jul 10, 6:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Douglas, Todd	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.