Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE SEVERE THREAT BOTH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE NORTH OF THE
STRONG CAPE/MULI GRADIENT OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MN...AND NEAR THE EDGE OF +12 700 MB TEMP. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AND GRADIENT WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AN MCS TRACKING ESE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MN,
EARLY ON...SUPER CELLS LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONG PRESS FALLS
CO-LOCATED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE REGIME IN SW MN AND EASTERN SD.

THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH BUT THE
COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ALONG QUICKLY BUT CERTAINLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2+ INCH LOCALIZED RAIN. MAY NEED SOME FLOOD
STATEMENTS THOUGH. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WONDER IF
THE GFS IS A LITTLE ROBUST WITH THE SUB 1000 MB LOW
MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA. PREFER MORE OF A NAM /SREF
SOLUTION WITH A BOUNDARY AND WEAKER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MN. WILL
DEPEND AGAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH ANY OUTFLOWS END UP TONIGHT. THE
UPPER JET MAY ALLOW MORE OF PROLONGED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN.
HAVE ALSO OUTLINED AN AREA OF SEVERE OVER SOUTHERN MN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO EXIT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO GIVE US DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAEFS METEOGRAMS AND GEFS POP
FIELDS SHOW A DECENT DRY PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT SEEMS TO BE DRAPED FROM EC SD ACROSS SRN MN... THROUGH
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL MN PER
SPC MESOANALYSIS. SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS. FOR AVIATION PURPOSES...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FROM AXN/STC INTO WISC INTO MID AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS...THEN MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH MID
EVENING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SATURDAY
MORNING... ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL MN INTO WISC SITES.

KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
PROBABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VCSH SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. AS FOR STRONG
WIND POTENTIAL IN STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REMOVED
MENTION OF G45 MAINLY BECAUSE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG WIND SEEMS TO
BE LINING UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IN WAKE OF PRECIP.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
261100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
208 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MNZ064-065-067-073>075-251700-
BROWN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER BROWN... WESTERN
NICOLLET...REDWOOD...RENVILLE...WESTERN SIBLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

AT 1052 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A GROUP OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLIVIA TO 10 MILES
SOUTH OF GRANITE FALLS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BELVIEW.
  DELHI.
  REDWOOD FALLS.
  BIRD ISLAND.
  MORTON.
  FRANKLIN.
  OLIVIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INDOORS DUE TO LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 9454 4420 9448 4442 9556 4488 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 290DEG 33KT 4466 9523

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MNZ043>045-251700-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER KANABEC...MILLE LACS
AND MORRISON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

AT 1101 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A BROAD AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO JUST NORTH OF LITTLE
FALLS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HARDING.
  HILLMAN.
  VINELAND.
  ONAMIA.
  BAYVIEW.
  WAHKON.
  LAKE MILLE LACS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

IF ON OR NEAR MILLE LACS LAKE...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 4618 9342 4616 9342 4616 9307 4598 9311
      4597 9312 4589 9313 4604 9410 4616 9408
      4616 9383 4620 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 278DEG 28KT 4611 9394

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HAIL             5 NNE DELHI             44.66N 95.17W
06/25/2010  M1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MNZ067>070-075>077-251830-
CARVER-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CARVER...DAKOTA...LE
SUEUR...NICOLLET...RICE...SCOTT AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM
CDT...

AT 1228 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ARLINGTON TO LAFAYETTE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ARLINGTON.
  HENDERSON.
  BELLE PLAINE.
  CLEVELAND.
  LE CENTER.
  MONTGOMERY.
  NEW PRAGUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9292 4427 9342 4436 9449 4465 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 270DEG 38KT 4458 9406 4444 9427

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064>066-073-074-252115-
BENTON-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE-
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...

AT 309 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF PROVIDENCE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR GILCHRIST....SWIFT FALLS
AND GROVE LAKE.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BURR.
  MADISON.
  DAWSON.
  BOYD.
  CLARKFIELD.
  WATSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9641 4526 9632 4520 9612 4540 9614
      4542 9620 4576 9568 4581 9428 4525 9426
      4419 9510 4423 9554 4464 9561 4467 9645
      4486 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 254DEG 46KT 4486 9620