Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...

THE FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SYNOPSIS...THE GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW
AND VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ND. LOOKING AT THE DETAILS ON
THIS WV AND ALSO VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH THE LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS...REVEALS AN AXIS OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING /AND LIKELY COOLING/ COMING EAST ACROSS EASTERN
SD. THIS SHOULD BE ERODE THE CAP AND THUS BE AN IMPETUS FOR STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HAND SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ND...WITH A
BULGING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN SD...AND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /MESO-WARM FRONT/ NEAR THE MN RIVER VALLEY. THE
AREA NEAR AND BETWEEN THESE FRONTS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING AND
PRESSURE FALLS/SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW IS...WILL BE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTED STORMS SHOULD FIRE BETWEEN 230 AND 4 PM. THE
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN STRONG TODAY...WITH 70F DEW
POINTS STAIR-STEPPING THEIR WAY NORTH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS
HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO BECOME MODEST TO STRONG...WITH THE
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A RIDGE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN MN. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 3000 J/KG.

ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF THREATS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE
FOR ALMOST ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE KMPX 18Z
SOUNDING. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CROSSOVER
COMPONENT...AND INSTABILITY FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN THE ENHANCED SMALLER-SCALE WARM
SECTOR LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST MN. THE CROSSOVER
COMPONENT GIVEN THE PROFILERS AND THE UPSTREAM ABR 18Z SOUNDING
INDICATE A FAVORABLE 60 TO 75 KT WSW MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SOUTHERLY
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FLOW IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THE RUC AND NAM
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...ALONG WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODEL MODES
AND SREF SUPERCELL PARAMETERS...INDICATE THAT THE SUPERCELL MODE
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY INTO
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. THE 18Z MPX HODOGRAPH SHOWS 60 TO 90
DEGREE TURNING IN THE LOWEST KM...WHICH HAS STRONG SPEED SHEAR TO
BEGIN WITH. THE RETURN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS OFFERED LCLS IN THE
3500-4500 FT...AND OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THAT SO FAR. GIVEN
THESE PARAMETERS AND FAVORABLE PROBABILISTIC DATA OF COMPOSITE
TORNADIC PARAMETERS FROM THE SREF AND FROM LOCAL CONDITIONAL
PROBABILISTIC DATA...TORNADOES ARE LIKELY FROM SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER ONES. THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS REALLY ALL FAIR
GAME...BUT PARTICULARLY EMPHASIS WOULD BE MADE NEAR OR SOON AFTER
INITIATION. THE FREEZING LEVEL IS HIGH...BUT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL
BE STRONG GIVEN SOME OF THE EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODEL
FORECASTS...SO LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM STRONGER SUPERCELLS.
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES INDICATE STRONG WIND POSSIBILITIES.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMB HAS BEEN VERY LARGE TODAY AS
WELL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE SLOWER CONVECTION IS. THIS WILL BE MOST FAVORED AWAY FROM
THE COLD FRONTAL BULGE...SO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND DOWN SOUTH
NEAR THE IA BORDER. THE EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z TO 02Z IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT COMES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI. WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA AND
UPPER JET NOSE MOVING NORTHEAST...THE CONGEALING FACTORS WILL
BECOME MORE DRIVEN BY COLD POOL AS OPPOSED TO ATMOSPHERIC
FORCING. THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT STRETCHED OUT BY WESTERN WI. BUT
CLUSTERS...OR POTENTIALLY ONE MCS...WILL MAINTAIN A WIND THREAT
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A SMALL TORNADO THREAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS...HAVE ADAPTED HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION
INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE...RUC...AND
VSREF TRENDS. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING
AREA-WIDE...INCLUDING TORNADOES INTO THE EARLY EVENING TO PROMOTE
THE MENTION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE STRONGER
TORNADOES. HAVE MENTIONED DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD ALONG THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH REMAINING STRONG WIND FIELDS STILL IN PLACE.
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS MOST FAVORED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...OVERALL NOT MUCH EMPHASIS PLACED
ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO IMMEDIATE SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS. LOOKS LIKE STILL A WET AND ACTIVE PERIOD WITH
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY LAID OUT TO THE SOUTH. SO HAVE BLENDED
GOING POPS WITH THE NEW HPC POPS. TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE IS LOW
BECAUSE OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT THE WARM COLUMN. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE NEAR HPC AND THE LATEST BIAS-CORRECTED EC.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION STILL LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE TIME WINDOWS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE SHORTENED
ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS... AND FINE TUNING CAN BE DONE TO
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE STORM RELATED WIND SPEEDS AS THINGS UNFOLD.
OVERALL... MOST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY
AND TONIGHT... BUT OBVIOUS LOWERING INTO MVFR CATEGORY DURING
CONVECTION WITH SOME BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN EXTREME HEAVY RAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST IS THE MAIN CAUSE ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MARCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WEST OF THE BORDER THEN ADVANCE EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT... SO A SECONDARY SHRA/TSRA WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF MAY OCCUR AT MANY LOCATIONS A FEW HOURS AFTER ANY
INITIAL CONVECTION... SO MORE SPECIFIC TIMING ON THAT MAY BE ABLE
TO BE INCLUDED IN FORECAST UPDATES.

KMSP... WINDOW OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE... SO
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEYOND WHAT IS EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE
TAF ARE A POSSIBILITY... ALONG WITH HAIL. FORECASTS WILL BE
UPDATED IF NEEDED TO TRY AND PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS SUCH AS THESE
ONCE SPECIFIC STORMS HAVE FORMED AND CAN BE TRACKED.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MTF/TRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
221 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
221 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THIS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TORNADOES...STRONG DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM MORRIS
TO LITTLE FALLS AND IN A CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO REDWOOD FALLS TO
OWATONNA...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A SQUALL
LINE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MORE LIKELY THREATS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING BY MID EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INDIVIDUAL STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH
LARGER STORM COMPLEXES AND LINES OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE WEATHER IS BEING CAUSED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS THERE THAT WILL
THEN SPREAD EAST INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE OUTLOOK AREA
FRIDAY EVENING.

A FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF MORE STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE THREAT IS HARD TO DISCERN AT
THIS TIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             FAIRMONT                43.64N 94.46W
06/17/2010  M0.75 INCH       MARTIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JVM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             2 E FAIRFAX             44.53N 94.68W
06/17/2010  M2.50 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             GIBBON                  44.54N 94.52W
06/17/2010  E1.75 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             2 NE COSMOS             44.96N 94.67W
06/17/2010  M0.50 INCH       MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
502 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             KIMBALL                 45.31N 94.30W
06/17/2010  M0.25 INCH       STEARNS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     KINGSTON                45.20N 94.31W
06/17/2010                   MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROTATING WALL CLOUD

&&

JVM