Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 226 PM CDT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL INTERACT WITH SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  LOW AND MID LEVELS WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LAG BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF(EUROPEAN MODEL) HAS THE BEST HANDLE
ON THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. PRECIP WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO LITTLE OVER 2.00 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT WHETHER WE
SEE SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT. IT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
DEFINITELY RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE SOME LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO
800-1200 J/KG WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES TO CLOSE 2.00 INCHES BY MID
OR LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH WEAKER THAN THE FIRST
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF OUR FORECAST BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS AFTER 06Z/SATURDAY.

DRY AND MILDER WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IS NEXT MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MVFR CIGS HV PERSISTED ACRS CNTRL MN (AXN/STC) THRU THE AFTN AND SEE
LITTLE CHC IMPRVMT AT LEAST NEXT 12 HRS. SCT -SHWRS WL CONT TO ARC
ACRS S AND CNTL MN THRU EVE. CNVTN BGNGG TO FIRE AHD OF VIGOROUS
SHRTWV APRCHG SW NEB.  CNVTN SHUD CONT DVLPG ACRS NEB/SODAK NEXT
FEW HRS IN WAA AND AND SUPPORT FM SHRTWV.  XPCT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD ACRS TAF SITES OVRNITE. PRBLY IFR AXN/STC OVRNITE IN LOW CIGS
AND VSBY.

KMSP...FEW -SHRA THRU THE EVE WITH TSTMS PSBL AFT 06Z AS SUPPORT
BGNS TO ARRIVE FM SHRTWV NOW MVG INTO SW NEB. XPCT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
OCNL LWR TO MVFR IN PCPN.  CONDS IMPRVG LT FRI MRNG/ERLY AFTN AS SFC
WNDS BCM SW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JM/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1122 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIME TIME FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1019 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

MNZ054-064-200430-
LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1019 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

AT 1011 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM BROOKINGS TO STONE
BRIDGE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT NEAR 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CANBY.
  ST LEO.
  PROVIDENCE.
  DAWSON.
  BOYD.
  PORTER.
  BURR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9643 4467 9539 4463 9545 4463 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 229DEG 46KT 4444 9677

BAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

MNZ041-047>049-055>058-065-200545-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-POPE-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
SWIFT-
1146 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WINDS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

AT 1138 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WAS FROM NEAR ORTONVILLE TO APPLETON TO MONTEVIDEO.  THEY
WERE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING TREES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AFFECTED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BIG BEND CITY.
  CLARA CITY.
  MURDOCK.
  KERKHOVEN.
  PENNOCK.
  WILLMAR.
  BENSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9624 4576 9575 4531 9476 4456 9491
      4513 9564 4509 9595 4519 9611 4528 9614
      4540 9614 4541 9622 4543 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 238DEG 35KT 4506 9556

BAP