Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.MESO UPDATE.../ISSUED 430 PM CDT/

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 530 PM AND 700 PM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ND AND/OR WEST CENTRAL MN. THE IMPETUS FOR THIS IS
SHOWING UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR...WITH A WAVE AT THE NOSE OF AN
UPPER LET JET MAX APPROACHING THAT AREA. ASSOCIATED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HAND
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM BRECKENRIDGE
TO NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND CENTRAL TODD COUNTIES...EAST SOUTHEAST TO
THE NORTH METRO. GOOD SPEED AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP HAS
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS SINCE 330 PM NEAR FAR WEST CENTRAL
MN...ALBEIT STILL SOMEWHAT STABLE LOOKING. SPC MESOANALYSIS OF
MLCIN STILL INDICATES A CAP IN THAT AREA...BUT WEAKENING. THIS
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
SHOULD BE THE BREEDING GROUND FOR CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY SURFACE
BASED. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
0-500M SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF MPX CWA
COUNTIES. THE CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...MAKING IT STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN
ESPECIALLY FROM INITIAL MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION. WEAKENING OF THE
CAP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
FAVOR CONVECTION TO EVOLVE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH ADVANCE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF INITIAL CONVECTION PROBABLE DURING THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO HELPING TO INCREASE
CONFIDENCE. MCS GROWTH PARAMETERS ARE LOW TO MODERATE BUT WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE INCOMING WESTERLY JET. THIS PUTS
THE TWIN CITIES AREA IN THE MOST PROBABLE TIME TO SEE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 200 PM CDT/
THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM...ARE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
MN...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL MN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP
INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50 AND
2.00 INCHES ALONG WITH TROPICAL PLUME EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO DUMP COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
OVER 3.0 INCHES...EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MN. CURRENTLY THERE WAS
ALOT OF CIN OR CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CIN OR CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...COULD GENERATE SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN...ARE MAX TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION DURING THE
PERIOD.  CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S.  HAVE BACK OFF ON MAX TEMPS JUST A
TAB...BELIEVE WITH ALL THE WET GROUND AND UNUSUAL GREEN-UP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS.  BY LATE IN THE NEW WORK
WEEK...THE UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.  THUS...THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS LATEST RADAR INDICATED SOME ECHOES DEVELOPING WEST OF
AXN AS OF 6 PM. THE AMT OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECT CONVERGE OF TSRA
THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND OF TSRA AT AXN/STC BY
00-01Z...WITH VRB WNDS OF 20 TO 40 KTS. WILL LIKELY UPDATE
MSP/RHN/EAU/RWF THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION RACES SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF TSRA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...AND IF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP IN THE WAVE OF THE TSRA.

INITIALLY...WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS BY
06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAU WHICH MAY LAG OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
THE LOWER CEILINGS...THE LATEST 18Z NAM HAS NOW INDICATED THAT
ONLY FG/BR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING...OTHER THAN LOWER
IFR CEILINGS...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WNDS SPEEDS NEAR THE SFC TO
MIX THE ATMOSPHERE UP A BIT. GFS DOES SHOW THE LOWER CLDS
DEVELOPING...WITH THE RUC HOLDING HIGHER RH VALUES NEAR THE
SFC...BUT MINIMAL CLDS. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A PROB30 FOR THE
TAFS...WHICH WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS DEVELOPS.

MSP...KEPT ONGOING TSRA NEARLY THE SAME AS WITH THE PREVIOUS 21Z
AND 18Z TAFS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND THE AMT OF
COVERAGE AS THE TSRA PROPAGATE SE ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING.
WNDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM THE S/SW...THEN W TO NW BY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED THE PROB30 OF CEILINGS ARND 600 FT BETWEEN
12-15Z/08. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-
     DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-
     STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.

WI...NONE.
&&

JVM/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL  ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. PERSONS CAMPING
OR LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS OR ADJACENT TO SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
SHOULD HAVE AN ACTION PLAN TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IMMINENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND IT IS TO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHERE ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST... HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY
ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME WILL CARRY WITH IT THE THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

WIZ016-080000-
RUSK-
622 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER RUSK COUNTY THROUGH 700
PM CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF TONY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TONY.
  GLEN FLORA.
  INGRAM.
  HAWKINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

IF ON AREA LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A
VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT
ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9068 4537 9091 4536 9092 4536 9093
      4560 9121 4565 9106 4564 9068 4563 9067
      4553 9066 4538 9067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 300DEG 28KT 4559 9098

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

MNZ041-042-080115-
DOUGLAS-TODD-
708 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DOUGLAS AND TODD COUNTIES THROUGH
815 PM CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BATTLE LAKE TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHARLESVILLE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MILLERVILLE.
  KENSINGTON.
  HEWITT.
  LEAF VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 9470 4635 9465 4577 9465 4576 9577
      4611 9572 4611 9516 4637 9516 4638 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 273DEG 22KT 4627 9565 4601 9619