Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Twin Cities, MN

582 
WWUS53 KMPX 201925
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

WIC095-201935-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-100720T2000Z/
POLK WI-
225 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4553 9215 4560 9208 4561 9206 4565 9177
      4541 9186 4551 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 282DEG 14KT 4563 9205

$$

WIC005-202000-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-100720T2000Z/
BARRON WI-
225 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BARRON COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BARRONETT...
OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICE LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CUMBERLAND AROUND 225 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4553 9215 4560 9208 4561 9206 4565 9177
      4541 9186 4551 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 282DEG 14KT 4563 9205
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

971 
WWUS53 KMPX 201956
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

WIC005-202006-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-100720T2000Z/
BARRON WI-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BARRON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4553 9215 4560 9208 4561 9206 4565 9177
      4541 9186 4551 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 282DEG 14KT 4560 9188

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO SURROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS...WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES. THE FIRST OF
THESE WAVES IS STRADDLING THE ND/SD BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT IS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MN. ALTHOUGH PROGGED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE DAKOTAS...STILL EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS/TS TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL MN/WI THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH TO PROMOTE SCT SHRA/TS
DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS LINGERING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME CONTINUE
TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPORARY/WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN ATTENDANT DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. LLVL WARM AIR/THETA E
ADVECTION ENSUES OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. PWATS SURGE TO
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WHEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE CWA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
FLUCTUATION IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A 2+ INCH BAND WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUB 1000MB SFC LOW TO WESTERN MN
WILL YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FAST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY TRIGGER MORE SCT SHOWERS...SO A 20 POP HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND BRINGS DECREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HRS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED TSRA/SHRA WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS AFTN. VWP WNDS INDICATE A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA...WITH SOME LT SHRA NEAR JMR AS OF 1130 AM.
BASED ON THE LATEST CAPE/LIS THAT HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS
MORNING...VCSH/VCTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SE ONE HALF OF
FA...WHICH WILL INCLUDE RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU...WITH SOME CHC NEAR STC.
SPC HAS PLACED WESTERN WISCONSIN IN A SLT RISK OF SVR TSRA THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH THIS SFC FEATURE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE THE VCSH...BUT WILL NOT PLACE A TEMPORARY PERIOD IN THE
TAFS UNTIL I HAVE A BETTER SCENARIO OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THE CELLS. WNDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE W/NW OVR THE NEXT 12/24
HRS...BEFORE BACKING TO MORE SW WEDNESDAY AFTN. CEILINGS SHOULD
HOLD SLIGHTLY ABV MVFR CEILINGS. ANY TSRA WILL BE BRIEF SO IF A
TEMPORARY PERIOD IS INTRODUCED IN THE 18Z TAFS...IT WILL BE VFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARND 3-5SM.

MSP...WNDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST...THEN NW/N THIS AFTN AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA NEAR JMR MAY MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A TEMPORARY
PERIOD OF VCTS...BUT CONFIDENCES IS TOO LOW FOR ADDING THIS TO THE
LATEST 18Z TAF. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3500 FT...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN TSRA AND POSSIBLY A IFR VSBY IF A
TSRA MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AIRPORT. AFT 02Z...WNDS WILL DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 5 KTS FROM THE W/NW...THEN BECOME MORE W/SW ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LGT AND VRB WNDS OVERNIGHT...BR/FG MAY
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
211715-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER BY THIS EVENING. DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER
STORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TOWARD THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

WIZ014-015-201930-
BARRON-POLK-
126 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

AT 122 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF LEWIS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FREDERIC.
  LEWIS.
  CLAM FALLS.
  MCKINLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4572 9214 4565 9215 4565 9202 4564 9202
      4545 9216 4563 9282 4566 9277 4565 9255
      4571 9255 4574 9252 4573 9218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 283DEG 17KT 4569 9242

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
134 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

MNZ073-074-201915-
BROWN-REDWOOD-
134 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

AT 131 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUCAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LUCAN.
  WALNUT GROVE.
  REVERE.
  WABASSO.
  WANDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 9559 4445 9547 4435 9501 4419 9517
      4421 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 288DEG 18KT 4436 9546