Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Twin Cities, MN

714 
WWUS53 KMPX 251845
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

WIC107-251853-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-100525T1915Z/
RUSK WI-
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF 
RUSK COUNTY.  HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WIND GUST TO 40 MPH ARE STILL 
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. 

LAT...LON 4537 9068 4538 9080 4564 9100 4565 9099
      4564 9068 4563 9067 4538 9067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 158DEG 16KT 4555 9076

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.UPDATE...

ADDED 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DAY OF ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER LIES AHEAD TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT COME
WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION...GETTING RID OF
THE HUMIDITY AND KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT INTO THE WEEKEND.

REMNANTS OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY ACROSS SODAK WORKING ACROSS THE
AREA NOW...WITH A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOTED ON RADAR JUST
PUSHING PAST THE I35 CORRIDOR AT 330 AM. THIS BOUNDARY HAD SOME
MUCH STRONGER WINDS AS IT CAME INTO WRN MN...WITH NUMEROUS
AIRPORTS REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH /67 MPH AT WINDOM WAS THE
HIGHEST/...BUT AS THE LINE CAME THROUGH THE CITIES IT WAS LUCKY TO
MUSTER UP 30 KTS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LOSING SOME OF ITS
PUNCH...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO WRN WI IN SOME FORM THIS
MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HOW
WILL IT IMPACT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
TAKEN A DIVE BACK INTO THE LOW 50S BEHIND. AT 06Z THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED BACK IN ERN SODAK...BUT UNLESS WE GET SOME
FORM OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CONVECTION
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF MN. AT ANY
RATE...HAVE PULLED THUNDER CHANCES FURTHER EAST TODAY...MATCHING
UP MORE WITH THE 06Z NAM...WHICH BASICALLY KEEPS THE MN PORTION OF
THE CWA DRY...WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS WI. IN
WI...ML CAPES ARE STILL FORECAST TO GET UP AROUND 3K J/KG...SO
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO REFIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BNDRY...BUT WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE...STORMS WILL
BE MORE OF AN AIRMASS TYPE...KEEPING SEVERE THREAT TO ONLY BEING
ISOLATED.

LATER TONIGHT...A WAVE CURRENTLY OVER KS/OK WILL BE COMING ACROSS
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THUNDER ACTIVITY GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS MAY
ACTUALLY BE WHEN AREA SEES ITS MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. AGAIN WITH SHEAR LIMITED...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THANKS TO
THE ENHANCED LIFT. AFTER THAT...FRONT WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THINGS LOOKING DRY UNTIL
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH.
MAIN TREND WITH 25.00 RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT DOWN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF...WHICH
BASICALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
FRONT HOLDING OFF ON ENTERING THE REGION UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY. AFTER
THAT...THINGS GET A LITTLE MUDDIED AS MED RANGE MODELS TRANSITION
CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN INTO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS COOLER NEXT WEEK...BUT
POSSIBLY MORE UNSETTLED AS THE ZONAL FLOW OFTEN IS.

FINAL ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES. ONE MORE HOT ONE TODAY...THOUGH
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...DID UP TEMPERATURES
SOME ACROSS ERN HALF OF MN AS LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
A FEW DEGREES C OVERNIGHT...SO ONLY EXPECT AN ISOLATED 90 OR TWO.
BIG STORY FOR MSP IS TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE
SATURDAY MORNING THAT THE MERCURY WILL DIP BELOW THE 70 DEGREE
MARK. APPROACHING 72 HOURS WITH 70+F TEMPS IS QUITE THE RARITY FOR
MSP IN THE MONTH OF MAY. GOOD NEWS...FROM WEDNESDAY ON...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
LOWS GETTING BACKING INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS GETTING UP AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI AT THIS TIME AND
WILL REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER KEAU THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTER CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY EVENING. MEANWHILE..AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER KANSAS WILL BE MOVING NE TONIGHT...INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND OTHER AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO
050...KRWF TO KMSP AND KRNH. LOWER CIGS INTO MVFR DURING TSTMS
VCNTY KEAU. KSTC AND KAXN SHOULD SEE CIGS AOA 070.

THE WAVE SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON WITH SKC-SCT250
CLOUD CONDITIONS.

KMSP...VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS RMRNG AOA 050. EXPECTING THUNDER
TO REMAIN GENERALLY EAST. CLOUDS AND CIGS CLEARING TO MAINLY
SKC CONDITIONS BY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SWINGING FROM S TO
SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO NNW OVERNIGHT AND NNE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

MPG/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
437 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
260945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
437 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW...WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT EASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...SPREADING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST INTO MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIMITED...WITH ISOLATED SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE TREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.