Alert archive / Minnesota / River Flood Warnings in 2010

River Flood Warning 29, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 2, 2010Dakota County, Hennepin County, Scott County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this river flood warning at Jul 2, 2010, 12:31 PM CDT for Dakota County, Hennepin County, Scott County, Minnesota. It took effect at Jul 5, 2010, 7:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 2, 2010, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 5, 2010, 7:00 AM CDT
Expired
Jul 5, 2010, 9:40 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Twin Cities, MN
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Dakota County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Scott County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Minnesota River at Savage (SAVM5).

Action stage
697 ft
Minor stage
702 ft
Moderate stage
710 ft
Major stage
712 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05330890, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

207 
WGUS43 KMPX 021731
FLWMPX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA... 

  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES


.THIS RIVER FORECAST IS BASED ON WATER MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH
THE MINNESOTA RIVER SYSTEM. RAINFALL FROM THE LAST WEEKEND IN 
JUNE LED TO RISES IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER PARTS OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER. AS THE WATER HAS WORKED DOWNSTREAM...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
BETTER IDENTIFY HOW HIGH THE RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AT SAVAGE.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS THE RAIN EVENT EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS 
FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL RAINFALL. THERE IS 
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE POSITIONING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND 
HOW IT WILL IMPACT THE MINNESOTA RIVER ABOVE SAVAGE. HENCE AS WE 
MOVE CLOSER TO THE RAINFALL EVENT...ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE 
FORECAST AT SAVAGE ARE POSSIBLE. 

INDIVIDUALS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER AT SAVAGE ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS
AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC037-053-139-032331-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FL.W.0029.100704T1200Z-100708T1200Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.100704T1200Z.100705T0600Z.100707T1800Z.NO/
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 699.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 702.3 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 702.5 
  FEET ON MAR 24 1985.

$$
5 follow-up statements
723 
WGUS83 KMPX 021859
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...
 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND NICOLLET
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON AFFECTING LE SUEUR...SCOTT AND SIBLEY 
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN AFFECTING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE AFFECTING CARVER...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 

.OVERVIEW...
THE INITIAL CREST WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE MINNESOTA VALLEY 
NEAR HENDERSON.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.
THE SPEED AND THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR A  
FOCUS FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO BE IN IOWA. HOWEVER IF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN...THEN HEAVIER RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE BLUE EARTH...LE 
SUEUR...AND MINNESOTA RIVER BASINS. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA WAS THE
FOCUS REGION FOR THE HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEKEND...THE SOILS ARE 
FAIRLY SATURATED AND DO NOT HAVE MUCH CAPACITY TO ABSORB 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME..AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.
THE IMPACT TO THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT THIS POINTS LOOKS TO 
MAINLY SLOW DOWN THE RECESSION AFTER THE INITIAL CRESTS 
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF HIGHER WIDESPREAD 
AMOUNTS ARE RECEIVED THEN SECONDARY RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL 36 TO 60 HOURS IN THE 
FUTURE...POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT INCLUDED THE CURRENT FORECAST.
WE WILL BEGIN TO INCORPORATE THE RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPDATES ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING. 

INDIVIDUALS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION FOR UPDATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC013-015-103-040059-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100708T0000Z/
/NULM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100701T1230Z.100706T1200Z.NO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM.
* AT  7:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 798.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 796.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 795.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ACCESS 
  ROADS IN THE FLOODPLAIN.

$$

MNC013-103-040059-
/O.ROU.KMPX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNKM5.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT MANKATO.
* AT 12:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.
$$

MNC079-139-143-040059-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-100705T1200Z/
/HENM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100702T1800Z.100704T1800Z.NO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON.
* AT 12:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 732.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 732.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE IS APPROACHING ITS CREST OF 732.7 FEET 
  THE RIVER WILL BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 732.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENCROACHING ON HIGHWAY 19 EAST
  OF HENDERSON. MN DOT REPORTED THAT THE BRIDGE TO HENDERSON WAS CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 732.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS IMPACTING RESIDENCES AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BUILDINGS NORTH AND SOUTH OF HENDERSON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 732.7 
  FEET ON JUN 19 2001.

$$

MNC019-139-040059-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100706T1200Z/
/JDNM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100703T1200Z.100705T1800Z.NO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.
* AT 12:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 28.5 FEET...HIGHWAY 41 AT CHASKA MAY CLOSE.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENCROACHING ON HIGHWAY 101 AT 
  SHAKOPEE.  THE ROAD WILL BE CLOSED IF WATER RISES MUCH HIGHER.
* IMPACT...AT 26.5 FEET...THE RIVER CROSSING AT SCOTT COUNTY ROAD 9 
  AND CARVER COUNTY ROAD 11/JONATHAN CARVER PARKWAY WILL CLOSED AT 
  THIS RIVER LEVEL. MN DOT REPORTED THAT THE BRIDGE AT JORDAN IS CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADS ALONG THE 
  RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD AND PRIVATE SANITARY SEWERS MAY EXPERIENCE 
  PROBLEMS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.3 FEET
  ON MAR 20 2007.

$$

MNC019-053-139-040058-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100708T1535Z/
/SKPM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100704T0600Z.100707T0335Z.NO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE.
* FOR SHAKOPEE, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 708.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 710.0 
  FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 714.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 41...
  JUST SOUTH OF CHASKA.
* IMPACT...AT 710.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101...
  NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. 
* IMPACT...AT 708.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT LOW LYING 
  AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 101 BRIDGE ALONG THE RIVER...ESPECIALLY 
  THE RV CAMPGROUND AND TRAILS. FLOOD WATERS ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT 
  HUBER PARK.  
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 709.7 
  FEET ON JUN 22 2001.

$$

MNC037-053-139-040058-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0029.100704T1200Z-100708T1200Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.100704T1200Z.100705T0600Z.100707T1800Z.NO/
159 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* AT 12:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 699.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 702.3 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 705.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PARK ROAD 
  AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE 
  TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 701.6 
  FEET ON MAY 21 1999.

$$
385 
WGUS83 KMPX 031526
FLSMPX
FLSFLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...
 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND NICOLLET
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON AFFECTING LE SUEUR...SCOTT AND SIBLEY
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN AFFECTING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE AFFECTING CARVER...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 

.OVERVIEW...
THE INITIAL CREST WAVE IS CURRENTLY IN THE MINNESOTA VALLEY NEAR
JORDAN.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA OF CONCERN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY... WHICH WOULD
GREATLY IMPACT THE AREA WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE MINNESOTA
RIVER BASIN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN
INCH... BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE TIMING OF 
FEATURES CHANGE FROM CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

GIVEN THAT THIS AREA WAS THE FOCUS REGION FOR THE HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND... THE SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED AND DO NOT HAVE
MUCH CAPACITY TO ABSORB ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THE IMPACT TO THE
MINNESOTA RIVER AT THESE POINTS LOOKS TO MAINLY SLOW DOWN THE
RECESSION AFTER THE INITIAL CRESTS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF HIGHER WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
RECEIVED THEN SECONDARY RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

INDIVIDUALS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION FOR UPDATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC013-015-103-042126-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100707T2100Z/
/NULM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100701T1230Z.100706T0900Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM.
* AT 7:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 798.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 796.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL... AND WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 795.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ACCESS 
  ROADS IN THE FLOODPLAIN.

$$

MNC079-139-143-042126-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-100705T1200Z/
/HENM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100703T0715Z.100704T1800Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 732.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 732.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL... AND WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 732.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENCROACHING ON HIGHWAY 19 EAST
  OF HENDERSON.
* IMPACT...AT 732.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS IMPACTING RESIDENCES AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BUILDINGS NORTH AND SOUTH OF HENDERSON.

$$

MNC019-139-042126-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100706T2100Z/
/JDNM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100703T1800Z.100706T0300Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.6 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY BEFORE 
  MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 26.7 FEET...THE BRIDGE AT SCOTT COUNTY ROAD 9 AND CARVER
  COUNTY ROAD 11/JONATHAN CARVER PARKWAY WILL BE CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADS ALONG THE 
  RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD AND PRIVATE SANITARY SEWERS MAY EXPERIENCE 
  PROBLEMS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.3 FEET
  ON MAR 20 2007.

$$

MNC019-053-139-042126-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100708T1930Z/
/SKPM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100704T1200Z.100707T0730Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE.
* FOR SHAKOPEE, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 708.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 710.6 
  FEET TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 714.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 41...
  JUST SOUTH OF CHASKA.
* IMPACT...AT 710.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101...
  NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. 
* IMPACT...AT 708.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT LOW LYING 
  AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 101 BRIDGE ALONG THE RIVER...ESPECIALLY 
  THE RV CAMPGROUND AND TRAILS. FLOOD WATERS ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT 
  HUBER PARK.  
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 709.7 
  FEET ON JUN 22 2001.

$$

MNC037-053-139-042126-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0029.100705T1200Z-100706T0600Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.100705T1200Z.100705T1200Z.100705T1200Z.NO/
1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 700.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE MONDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE 
  TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 701.6 
  FEET ON MAY 21 1999.

$$
759 
WGUS83 KMPX 041523
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...
 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND 
  NICOLLET COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON AFFECTING LE SUEUR...SCOTT AND SIBLEY 
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN AFFECTING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE AFFECTING CARVER...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 

.OVERVIEW...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA
VALLEY TODAY... BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER
THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND HALF OF AN INCH... AND AN
ADDITIONAL TENTH OR SO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNFICANT IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS...
AND WILL MAINLY SERVE TO SLIGHTLY DELAY THE RECESSION OF HIGHER
LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

INDIVIDUALS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR UPDATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND... DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC013-015-103-052123-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100707T2100Z/
/NULM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100701T1230Z.100706T0900Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM.
* FOR NEW ULM, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE WAS AVAILABLE.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 796.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL... AND WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 795.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ACCESS 
  ROADS IN THE FLOODPLAIN.

$$

MNC079-139-143-051800-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-100705T1800Z/
/HENM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100703T0715Z.100705T0000Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 732.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 732.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL... AND WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 732.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENCROACHING ON HIGHWAY 19 EAST
  OF HENDERSON.
* IMPACT...AT 732.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS IMPACTING RESIDENCES AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BUILDINGS NORTH AND SOUTH OF HENDERSON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 732.7 
  FEET ON JUN 19 2001.

$$

MNC019-139-052122-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100707T1500Z/
/JDNM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100704T1200Z.100706T2100Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY CRESTING... WILL BEGIN FALLING
  THIS AFTERNOON... AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 26.7 FEET...THE BRIDGE AT SCOTT COUNTY ROAD 9 AND CARVER
  COUNTY ROAD 11/JONATHAN CARVER PARKWAY WILL BE CLOSED.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADS ALONG THE 
  RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD AND PRIVATE SANITARY SEWERS MAY EXPERIENCE 
  PROBLEMS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.3 FEET
  ON MAR 20 2007.

$$

MNC019-053-139-052122-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100709T2100Z/
/SKPM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100705T0600Z.100708T0900Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE.
* FOR SHAKOPEE, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE WAS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 708.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 710.8 
  FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW... THEN BEGIN FALLING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
* IMPACT...AT 714.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 41...
  JUST SOUTH OF CHASKA.
* IMPACT...AT 710.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101...
  NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. 
* IMPACT...AT 708.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT LOW LYING 
  AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 101 BRIDGE ALONG THE RIVER...ESPECIALLY 
  THE RV CAMPGROUND AND TRAILS. FLOOD WATERS ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT 
  HUBER PARK.  
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 709.7 
  FEET ON JUN 22 2001.

$$

MNC037-053-139-052122-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0029.100705T1200Z-100708T0600Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.100705T1200Z.100706T0600Z.100707T1200Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* AT  9:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 701.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 702.3 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 705.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PARK ROAD 
  AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE 
  TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 701.6 
  FEET ON MAY 21 1999.

$$
554 
WGUS83 KMPX 051050
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MINNESOTA...

  MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND 
  NICOLLET COUNTIES 

  MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN AFFECTING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES 

  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE AFFECTING CARVER...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 

  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES 

.OVERVIEW...
THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC013-015-103-061650-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-100707T2100Z/
/NULM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100701T1230Z.100706T0900Z.NO/
550 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM.
* FOR NEW ULM, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 796.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 796.5 
  FEET THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 795.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ACCESS 
  ROADS IN THE FLOODPLAIN.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 798.3 
  FEET ON APR 4 1998.

$$

MNC019-139-061650-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-100707T1500Z/
/JDNM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100704T1200Z.100706T2100Z.NO/
550 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN.
* AT  5:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME ROADS ALONG THE 
  RIVER BEGIN TO FLOOD AND PRIVATE SANITARY SEWERS MAY EXPERIENCE 
  PROBLEMS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.3 FEET
  ON MAR 20 2007.

$$

MNC019-053-139-061650-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100709T2100Z/
/SKPM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.100705T1200Z.100708T0900Z.NO/
550 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE.
* FOR SHAKOPEE, NO OBSERVED STAGE VALUE IS AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 708.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 710.7 
  FEET THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 710.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT HIGHWAY 101...
  NORTH OF THE BRIDGE. 
* IMPACT...AT 708.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT LOW LYING 
  AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 101 BRIDGE ALONG THE RIVER...ESPECIALLY 
  THE RV CAMPGROUND AND TRAILS. FLOOD WATERS ALSO BEGIN TO IMPACT 
  HUBER PARK.  
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 709.7 
  FEET ON JUN 22 2001.

$$

MNC037-053-139-061650-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0029.100705T1200Z-100708T0600Z/
/SAVM5.1.ER.100705T1200Z.100706T0600Z.100707T1200Z.NO/
550 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* AT  5:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 701.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 702.3 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE 
  TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 701.6 
  FEET ON MAY 21 1999.

$$
621 
WGUS83 KMPX 051440
FLSMPX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
940 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MINNESOTA...
 
  MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT 
  COUNTIES

.OVERVIEW...

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK, NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE RIVER LEVEL AT SAVAGE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN
TO SLOWLY FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION 
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

MNC037-053-139-051510-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-100708T0600Z/
/SAVM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE.
* AT  9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 701.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 702.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 701.6 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL TO 701.5 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 705.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PARK ROAD 
  AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* IMPACT...AT 702.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO IMPACT BLACK DOG ROAD
  IN BURNSVILLE.
* IMPACT...AT 700.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO COVER SOME OF THE 
  TRAILS AT FORT SNELLING STATE PARK. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 701.6 
  FEET ON MAY 21 1999.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 2, 11:59 AM CDT, 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 11:59 AM CDT, 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010/
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND BY CRANING ONE/S
NECK OUT THE WINDOW THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE QUICKLY
RECOVERING THROUGH THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA... AND THE 12Z SOUNDING
ALONG WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THEY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST VALUES... SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY... WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY... PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY
MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS... BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANYTHING SINCE THE LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THE BETTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL MOVE IN TOWARD EVENING WHEN WE WILL START TO LOSE OUR
BEST MIXING. HOWEVER... WILL BUMP UP FORECAST VALUES SLIGHTLY AND
ACCOUNT FOR SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 25KT AND GUSTS AOA 35KT IN
THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE... KEPT THINGS PRETTY MUCH INTACT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AVIATION WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING PERSISTS... WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
THE WEST... BUT THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY TO LOSE GUSTINESS... BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE AOA
10KT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS. HOWEVER... WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
GUSTINESS THERE WILL BE A NEED TO MENTION SOME NON-CONVECTIVE WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL SITES OVERNIGHT... FROM KSTC AND
KMSP EASTWARD. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD... GENERALLY FROM 170-200.

KMSP... TAF REFLECTS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WELL WITH MINIMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN EXPRESSED VALUES. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SOME WIND
GUSTS AOA 25KT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS LOOK TO
DECOUPLE TONIGHT TO END THE GUSTINESS... BUT THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET APPROACHING 50KT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... SO
INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010/
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD AS THE AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WC INTO SC MN...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE BIT MORE WIND IN PROFILE FOR 30 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS
DEEPING TROUGH IN MT/WY PULLS THERMAL RIDGE A BIT FARTHER WEST.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
YESTERDAY.

NAM/GFS/CNDN MODELS ALL PRETTY CLOSE ON MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT WITH
GFS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION EARLIER ADVERTISED BY
OTHER MODELS. WARMING 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS TEMPS FORECAST TO
EXCEED 12C.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY EARLY SAT
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.  LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT. GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN LATER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO AOA 2 INCHES.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK AS WEDGE OF WARM AIR LIES ACROSS AREA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

FRONT WILL SLIDE FAR ENUF EAST TO ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY ON JULY
4TH EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING PRECIP THREAT IN WC WI INTO SC MN.

ANOTHER TROF COMES THRU ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN
TO PRECIP CHANCE. COOLER PUSH OF AIR FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM MID WEEK.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

TRH/BAP
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 10:24 AM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1024 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
031530-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1024 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEKEND HAS LED TO HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG RIVERS
IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT
THIS TIME THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
HOWEVER... HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MINNESOTA RIVER WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DOWNSTREAM FROM NEW ULM. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Minnesota, 2010Every river flood warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.