Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Anoka County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI

170 
WGUS63 KMPX 130854
FFAMPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND A PART OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL SET TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE WATCH AREA. CURRENT
FORECASTS PREDICT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...BEING POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
THIS IS IN MUCH THE SAME AREA THAT RECEIVED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND MAY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS IN THIS REGION...IT IS VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

MNZ078-085-093-131700-
/O.EXB.KMPX.FF.A.0006.100813T1200Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RED WING...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA
354 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
 MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FREEBORN AND STEELE. IN 
 SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...GOODHUE.

* FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

*ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON ALREADY
 SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT COULD
 POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WIZ015-016-023>028-131700-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FF.A.0006.100813T1200Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...
HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...
BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...
EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
354 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
 BARRON AND RUSK. IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHIPPEWA...DUNN...
 EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...PIERCE AND ST. CROIX.

*FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

*ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON ALREADY
 SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT COULD
 POTENTIALLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

902 
WGUS63 KMPX 131530
FFAMPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND A PART OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA
RANGED FROM LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO LOCALLY ONE INCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN A SMALL AREA IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE LOCALLY THREE TO FIVE
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL
ONE HALF INCH IN THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND MANY
STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH. SPECIFICALLY...THE
CANNON...ZUMBRO...RED CEDAR...EAU GALLE AND RUSH RIVERS AS WELL AS
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR THESE RIVERS ARE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD STAY
ABREAST OF RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ015-016-023>028-140000-
/O.CON.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RED WING...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...
RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...
PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...FREEBORN...GOODHUE AND STEELE. IN 
 WISCONSIN...BARRON...CHIPPEWA...DUNN...EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...
 PIERCE...RUSK AND ST. CROIX.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* OVERNIGHT RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY IN PORTIONS OF EAST
  CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN. MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ELEVATED OR BANK FULL.

* FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT OF
  FLOODING LATER TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
  STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON ALREADY
  SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT COULD
  POTENTIALLY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

JLT

385 
WGUS63 KMPX 131919
FFAMPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND A PART OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH 1 AM CDT TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE WATCH
AREA LAST NIGHT RANGED FROM LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN... TO LOCALLY ONE INCH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN A SMALL
AREA IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE LOCALLY THREE
TO FIVE INCHES FELL LAST NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MINNESOTA-DAKOTAS BORDER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING... ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO TWO INCHES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND
MANY STREAMS... CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH. SPECIFICALLY...
THE CANNON... ZUMBRO... RED CEDAR... EAU GALLE AND RUSH RIVERS AS
WELL AS SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR THESE RIVERS ARE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD STAY
ABREAST OF RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MNZ052-053-060>063-068>070-076-077-084-WIZ014-140330-
/O.EXA.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-WASECA-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...
LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...WASECA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WEST
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
  MINNESOTA...ANOKA...CARVER...CHISAGO...DAKOTA...HENNEPIN...
  ISANTI...LE SUEUR...RAMSEY...RICE...SCOTT...WASECA AND
  WASHINGTON. IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...POLK.

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY

* LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WAS HEAVY IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
  SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
  MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ELEVATED OR BANK FULL.

* FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT OF 
 FLOODING LATER TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MNZ078-085-093-WIZ015-016-023>028-140330-
/O.CON.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GOODHUE-STEELE-FREEBORN-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RED WING...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...
RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...
PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
219 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...FREEBORN...GOODHUE AND STEELE. IN 
 WISCONSIN...BARRON...CHIPPEWA...DUNN...EAU CLAIRE...PEPIN...
 PIERCE...RUSK AND ST. CROIX.

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY

* LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WAS HEAVY IN PORTIONS OF EAST
  CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN. MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ELEVATED OR BANK FULL.

* FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT OF 
 FLOODING LATER TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG 
 STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

096 
WGUS63 KMPX 140056
FFAMPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
756 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHILE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN HAS END TO THE WEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 1 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE COUNTIES
REMAINING IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ARE DUNN...PEPIN...EAU
CLAIRE...CHIPPEWA AND RUSK. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...CONTINUE TO MARCH SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STORMS STRETCH FROM DURAND THROUGH MENOMONIE TO LADYSMITH.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND
MANY STREAMS... CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH. 
SPECIFICALLY... THE EAU GALLE AND RUSH RIVERS AS WELL AS SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS NEAR THESE RIVERS ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING. THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF
RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MNZ052-053-060>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014-015-023-024-
140200-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WASECA-STEELE-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...
LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...WASECA...OWATONNA...
ALBERT LEA...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...HUDSON...
NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT
756 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THIS INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN THESE AREAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVING
MOVED TO THE EAST.

$$

WIZ016-025>028-140600-
/O.CON.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUSK-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...
DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
756 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...RUSK...CHIPPEWA...DUNN...EAU CLAIRE AND PEPIN.

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY

* LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL WAS HEAVY IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
  WISCONSIN AND MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ELEVATED OR BANK
  FULL.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE
  REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
  RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

533 
WGUS63 KMPX 140224
FFAMPX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
924 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVING MOVED EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. 

WIZ016-025>028-140330-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-100814T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUSK-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE...
DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
924 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

BIG ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...ALONG WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TOMORROW IN ERN MN AND
ESPECIALLY WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BEYOND THAT...COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER STILL ON TAP TO INVADE THE AREA OVER THIS WEEKEND. FOR
NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE NW FLOW IN PLACE...BUT CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
POTENTIAL TUESDAY.

WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS UPPER
RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA OVER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A
DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS NRN ALBERTA...WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER ERN IDAHO. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE RETURN TO A PERTURBED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES STRETCHING
FROM NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS...SW TO THE BLACK HILLS. THE WAVE
OF INTEREST FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS THE ONE NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS /WHICH HAS A PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH IT/. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AT THE SFC..AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL SODAK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO NW KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ABERDEEN...EAST TO
GRANITE FALLS AND EXTENDS SE TO NEAR WADENA. THIS FRONT HAS
REMAINED STATIONARY MOST OF THE DAY...AS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM ERN NODAK ACROSS NRN MN HAS SENT SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH THAT HAS HELPED SLOW ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. ANY SERIOUS NORTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL
BACK IN ERN SODAK...WHERE A PERSISTENT 30 KT SRLY LLJ CONTINUES TO
BLOW.

THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TONIGHTS ACTIVITY IS THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG ELEVATED MIX LAYER...AND THE CAP THAT COMES WITH /LATEST
SPC MESO ANALYSIS PUTS THE 12C H7 ISOTHERM ESSENTIALLY CONCURRENT
WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT/...WHICH LEADS TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT. CU HAS STRUGGLED TO FORM
WITHIN THIS CAP...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF ITS STRENGTH. AS FOR WHERE
GREATEST WORRY IS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...AND IN
PARTICULAR TORNADOES...IS WEST CENTRAL MN AS THIS IS WHERE MLCAPES
HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 3000 TO 4000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-1KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF ANYTHING CAN MANAGE TO BREAK THE
CAP OUT THERE AND BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN THERE
IS A PRETTY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WOULD BE TORNADIC...WITH EVEN
THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN STRENGTH OF
INSTABILITY AND SHAPE OF HODOGRAPHS IN THE AREA...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...LLJ WILL BE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA AS EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES IN...THIS RESULTS IN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE...WHICH SHOULD HELP
CONSOLIDATE WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE WEST INTO A COMPLEX OR TWO.
WHERE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN IS WITH THE HRRR AND THE OTHER
SHORT/MEDIUM MODELS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ALL DAY
WITH BRINGING ACTIVITY INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AROUND 10 PM
/02Z/...WHERE AS THE THE REST OF THE SHORT/MEDIUM MODELS ARE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 15Z SREF...WAITING UNTIL 5 AM /09Z/ BEFORE
BRINGING MUCH INTO THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP...HAVE
BEEN HESITANT TO BITE OFF ON THE HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A TENDENCY
TO BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BREAKING CAPS THIS SUMMER AND
HAVE FAVORED MORE WITH THE SREF...THINKING STORMS WILL STAY WITH
BETTER SFC AND LLJ FORCING FORCING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TWO ISSUES AT PLAY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALS. LOOKING AT THE SEVERE
THREAT...VERY MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MLCAPES ONCE
AGAIN APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG TOMORROW...BUT WITH EXPECTED
VALUES OVER 30 KTS...PLENTY WILL EXIST GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT. AGAIN...WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND
14/15 K FT...DO NOT THINK HAIL IS MUCH OF A THREAT...BUT GIVEN
WIND FIELDS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LIKE
TUESDAY...THE BIG THREAT HERE LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL. ONCE AGAIN NAM/GFS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PWATS BACK
TO OR ABOVE THE 2 INCH MARK...SO HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS LEGIT
GIVEN RECENT ATMOSPHERIC PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE
HEAVY RAINS FELL TUESDAY NIGHT. SOILS IN THIS AREA REMAIN
SATURATED AND RIVERS/STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. LATEST 6 HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST OVER 2 INCHES FOR WEST CENTRAL WI
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE 09Z AND 15Z VERSIONS OF THE SREF
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 12
HOURS SHOWING UP RIGHT WHERE THE HEAVY RAINS FELL TUESDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST WEST
CENTRAL WI COUNTIES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

THE DISTURBING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...FROM THE WEST CENTRAL WI
PERSPECTIVE...IS THAT THEY HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN RAIN LINGERING A
BIT LONGER INTO SATURDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...
CWA LOOKS TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO
SAY SUNDAY WOULD BE DRY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS UNDER COLD AIR
ALOFT ACROSS MAINLY NRN MN SUNDAY...THOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY
BE ABLE TO FIND THEIR WAY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEYOND
THAT...GFS/ECMWF BECOME AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
FAVORED ECMWF HEAVILY FOR EXTENDED FORECAST...AS IT HAS SHOWN MUCH
MORE CONSISTENCY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS COME BACK TUESDAY AS STRONG WAVE DROPS SE ON NW
FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE
PUTTING A DENT IN THE CURRENT +8 DEGREE ANOMALY AT MSP FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS AS
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS WHEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...HOW FAST IT MOVES TO THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY MSP AND EASTWARD AND WHAT TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT WE SEE FRIDAY 14Z AND LATER AND HOW
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY KICKS IN IN SW MN BY 00Z AND SPREADS
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY 06Z..AFTER THAT THE MAGNITUDE DECREASES AND
IT INCREASES OVER SE MN BY 18Z FRIDAY. WHEREAS GOOD UPWARD
DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN BY EVENING AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. APPEARS TO BE PRETTY GOOD CAP ACROSS SW MN
AND GROWING TOWARD THE EAST. THAT WOULD BE WHY WE HAVE SEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND CONVECTION ACROSS SW MN.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IT TAKE THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TO
MOVE EAST TO BREAK THE CAP. IF SO EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MSP AND EAST UNTIL FRIDAY. THE HRRR BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO MSP BY 00Z TONIGHT AND THE WRF AND SREF
BRING IT IN AFT 12 FRIDAY. WRF APPARENTLY BELIEVES WE NEED THE
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST TO BREAK THE CAP. WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE WRF AS IT HAS NOT HANDLED
THE ACTIVITY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS WELL THIS MORNING WHEREAS
THE HRRR HAS DONE BETTER AND THAT IS WHY WE WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD AND DO THINK THE HRRR IS TOO FAST. A LOT WILL BE
DETERMINED HERE BY 22Z AND WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
AXN AND RWF TERMINALS SHOULD GET IN ON THE ACTION BY 22Z. MAY SEE
SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IN
EXCESS OF 20KTS.

KMSP...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE
ENOUGH...STRENGTHENING THE CAP. THIS WILL BE KEEP THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM OCCURRING UNTIL 5Z OR LATER FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TIMING OF CONVECTION.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
     BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE
     SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
     STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU
     CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST.
     CROIX.

&&

MPG/DRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
130945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1105 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EXTENDING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. THE GREATEST RISK OVER SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE WEST OF A
LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO REDWOOD FALLS.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EVENING...THEN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS REST
OF THE MINNESOTA AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AD WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A RISK OF TORNADOES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN MUCH OF THE MINNESOTA
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.

DRL