Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...HOT...MUGGY PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND FORM OVER THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO
THE 100 TO 105 RANGE. /08 JW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER
REGIME TO CONTINUE AS BROAD RIDGE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATE LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER. CYCLE WILL CONTINUE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOW TO MID 70S AT MORE INLAND SITES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH INTO THE MID 90S AND OCNLY UPPER
90S WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOW 90S. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. THE
CYCLE OF PRIMARILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE.
AS WELL...WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO
MOVEMENT WITH THESE STORMS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALLS AMOUNTS. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION [17/18Z]...EXPECT ISO/SCT TSRA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS...WITH BRIEF STRONG CONVECTIVE WINDS AND
DOWNBURSTS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALL POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS
AFT 20Z. AS TSTMS DECREASE BY 02Z...EXPECT LEFT OVER MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS TO SET UP. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL
NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN TO FOLLOW WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAINLY
A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND MAINLY A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS NEAR A FOOT. WINDS...WAVES...AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  94  73  93 /  20  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  93 /  20  30  20  30
DESTIN      79  92  79  90 /  20  50  20  30
EVERGREEN   71  96  72  95 /  20  30  20  30
WAYNESBORO  71  95  71  95 /  20  40  20  30
CAMDEN      73  95  72  95 /  20  30  20  30
CRESTVIEW   71  97  72  95 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-181200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
530 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY...BUT CAN STILL OCCUR ON
AN ISOLATED BASIS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL ALL BE A THREAT IN STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.