Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF AREA WITH LOWER POPS TO
THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
WILL HELP SHUNT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WITH MUCH LOWER
POPS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD
EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON MONDAY. /13

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 70S. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[05/18Z]...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR DAYTIME
TSRA AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AND THEN TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO THE SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REFORM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
BACK THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN A DRY PERIOD
THROUGH MID WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  74  94 /  30  40  20  20
PENSACOLA   79  89  78  94 /  30  50  20  20
DESTIN      79  88  78  91 /  30  60  20  20
EVERGREEN   74  91  72  93 /  30  50  20  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  94 /  20  40  20  20
CAMDEN      73  93  71  94 /  20  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   75  92  74  93 /  30  60  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-061200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
535 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LOCALITIES TO SEE VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH GENERAL ANNOYANCE PONDING
OF WATER THE RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCALITIES MAY SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL STORMS TRAIN OVER AN
AREA...OR A SLOW MOVEMENT IS REALIZED.

A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY......THEN SETTLE
TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SMALL CRAFT OUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE INCREASE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...THEN TAPER OFF. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE TO MODERATE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE PROBLEMS FOR SMALL CRAFT AT TIMES INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT BEING NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ064-FLZ002-052030-
LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN
AND SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LILLIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
BEULAH...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...GONZALEZ AND CANTONMENT THROUGH 330 PM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

PURDY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MSZ075-076-078-079-052200-
GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WIGGINS...
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GEORGE...STONE...PERRY AND
GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ROGERS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DETECTED ACROSS
STONE...PERRY...GEORGE...AND GREEN COUNTIES.

THIS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
TEN MILE...PERKINSTON...WLOX TV STATION TOWER...WIGGINS...WHITES
CROSSING...RAMSEY SPRINGS AND JANICE THROUGH 500 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ060-052230-
COVINGTON-
426 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COVINGTON COUNTY...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOCKHART...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LOCKHART...FLORALA...STEDMAN...HOWELLS AND GREEN BAY THROUGH 530 PM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ061-MSZ079-052245-
UPPER MOBILE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUCEDALE...
504 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GEORGE AND MOBILE COUNTIES
THROUGH 546 PM...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF BASIN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LUCEDALE...AGRICOLA...EVANSTON...SHIPMAN AND MOFFET THROUGH 545 PM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN
SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF ELECTRICAL POWER MAY
RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...OR SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ061>064-052345-
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE AND DOWNTOWN MOBILE...
554 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BALDWIN AND MOBILE
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHASTANG TO 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND BAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...DOWNTOWN
MOBILE...WALLACE TUNNEL...SOUTH ORCHARD...PINTO ISLAND...
LATHAM...VAUGHN...DAPHNE...SPANISH FORT AND JACKSON OAK THROUGH 645
PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

ALZ062-064-FLZ001>006-060000-
INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER
BALDWIN-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRESTVIEW...DESTIN...FORT WALTON BEACH...
NAVARRE AND PENSACOLA...
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BALDWIN...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THIS AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BALDWIN COUNTY IN ALABAMA AND MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.