Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...WILL BE UNSETTLED IN THE NEAR TERM WITH
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST. WILL
HAVE A BLEND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS TAKING ON A BLEND OF
LIFR/IFR LEVELS IN PASSAGE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVIER RAINS.
ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR DEPARTURES AND APPROACHES WILL BE ABRUPT-STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED CHANGES IN AND NEAR STORMS.
FORECASTERS HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH FORMATION OF OVERNIGHT FOG AS
WELL DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL INPUT OF RAINWATER TO THE SOIL. WE CONSIDER
THIS IN DROPPING THE VSBY TO IFR LEVELS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS IN OR NEAR THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z.
/10

...............PREVIOUS UPDATE.............................

.UPDATE...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA BEING IMPACTED
BY AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH. THESE SYSTEMS ARE BRINGING ORGANIZED
LIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WHEN THESE COMBINE
WITH WEAK MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS JUST
SHY OF 2 INCHES...THE STAGE REMAINS SET FOR A WET DAY WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING +RA. SINCE
MIDNIGHT...THERE HAVE BEEN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED DECENT RAINS.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS HEAVIEST STORM TOTAL RAINS OVER THE LAST
24 HRS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO
PRICHARD AL TO MILTON FL WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES FELL IN LOCALIZED
AREAS. COCORAHS SITES JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE AROUND PRICHARD
AND SARALAND HAVE REPORTED AROUND 5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINS.
FORECASTERS WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATION IN THESE AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RUNOFF AND FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOWER LYING AREAS.

WILL BE WATCHING FOR ISOLATED STRONGER TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. LATEST WET
MICROBURST RISK ASSESSMENT FOR DAMAGING SEVERE STORM WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH IS LOW.

WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS...LOWERING THE FCST MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE WHAT IS OBSERVED IN THE SURFACE DATA AND ALSO WHAT WE SEE
COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH REGARD TO MORE WET WEATHER. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  87  65 / 100  70  30  20
PENSACOLA   77  71  85  68 / 100  80  30  20
DESTIN      78  72  82  71 /  90  80  40  20
EVERGREEN   77  67  88  62 / 100  80  30  20
WAYNESBORO  76  66  87  61 / 100  60  20  10
CAMDEN      78  66  88  63 / 100  80  30  10
CRESTVIEW   78  68  88  63 / 100  80  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-171045-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
TOTAL RAINFALL WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS
AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET...CREATING A LOW HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      15 NE FORT MORGAN       30.38N 87.84W
05/16/2010                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF WATER COVERING FORT MORGAN ROAD IN SEVERAL
            SPOTS

&&

JFB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1027 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

FLZ004-161615-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NAVARRE...
1027 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SANTA ROSA COUNTY...

AT 1023 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORIOLE
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
NAVARRE AND HAROLD THROUGH 1115 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A
SAFE CROSSING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.