Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM
OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LEVEL. MEANWHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KTS WILL AIDE STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE BEST SRH VALUES REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEEING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL OVERLAP. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND FACT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE A COLD
FRONT TO CLEAR THE AIRMASS OUT SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID AN UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO MORE
TYPICAL FALL WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED
FROM THE FRONT. THUS...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY STRONG STORMS. /13

&&

.AVIATION...[24/18Z ISSUANCE]...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE GULF AND INCREASES IN LOW MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
AREA...MARGINAL VFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOWEST CIGS/VISBYS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. /22

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
WIND FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  84  70  85 /  60  30  10  20
PENSACOLA   70  83  71  83 /  60  40  10  20
DESTIN      71  82  71  80 /  40  50  10  20
EVERGREEN   65  86  68  86 /  60  40  10  20
WAYNESBORO  64  86  70  86 /  60  30  10  20
CAMDEN      64  86  68  87 /  60  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   66  86  68  85 /  60  50  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-251200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

AS AN UPPER SYSTEM PASSES FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TIMING FOR THE AREA IS THE STRONGEST WEATHER STARTING TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BUT SOMEWHAT LIMITED WIND SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN BOWING
SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE RISK TO SMALL
CRAFT.SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SETTLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING THE RISK TO SMALL CRAFT...BUT AS ANOTHER PAIR OF
UPPER SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN
THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILST THE
BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE RISK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...THOUGH A FEW MAY STILL BECOME STRONG.

THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND AN EVEN GREATER RISK TO
SMALL CRAFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

ALZ061-242230-
UPPER MOBILE AL-
455 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF SARALAND...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
OAK GROVE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT VERNON AROUND 530 PM CDT...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
513 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             WILMER                  30.82N 88.36W
10/24/2010  E0.88 INCH       MOBILE             AL   PUBLIC

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN WILMER.

&&

KC