Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Mobile, AL

481 
WWUS54 KMOB 042038
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALC097-MSC039-042130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-100804T2130Z/
GEORGE MS-MOBILE AL-
338 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR MOBILE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS NEAR OAK GROVE...OR ABOUT
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 
10 MPH. 

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE AT
AREA CODE 2 5 1...AND THEN 6 3 3 6 4 4 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT YOUR
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT.

LAT...LON 3060 8842 3073 8842 3073 8855 3083 8865
      3110 8821 3086 8805 3047 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 304DEG 25KT 3083 8811

$$

757 
WWUS54 KMOB 042104
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALC097-MSC039-042112-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-100804T2130Z/
GEORGE MS-MOBILE AL-
404 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOBILE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3060 8842 3073 8842 3073 8855 3083 8865
      3110 8821 3086 8805 3047 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 304DEG 25KT 3074 8795

$$

COHEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
GYRE CONTINUES OVER THE MID SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST NOSES WESTWARD. A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST ROAD TO TAKE IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES MOVING TO THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR/POSSIBLE 100S IN A FEW SPOTS. ALONG THE COAST...MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 95 OR SO. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEAT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LATEST GRIDDED
FORECASTS OF HEAT INDICES(HI'S) SUGGEST DANGEROUS LEVELS NEAR 110
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA (HI'S 108< 110
FOR REMAINDER OF SW AL AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. A
TRICKY FORECAST...AS TIMING OF TSTMS OVER ANY ONE AREA WILL BRING A
LARGE COOLING SWING OF SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES OFF DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

ABOVE NORMAL...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
(PRECIPITABLE WATERS 2-2.2") IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TODAY WILL CAUSE THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME UNSTABLE.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/COASTAL SEA
BREEZE...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED COVERAGES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THROUGH THE DAY. A MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S AND DEWPOINT IN THE MID 70S SUGGEST A BORDER LINE
MODERATE/HIGH RISK DAY FOR STRONG STORMS TO REQUIRE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ISSUANCE (DOWNBURST WINDS=> 35-45 MPH). SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS WITH MAX WIND GUSTS => 60+ MPH BEING
POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE.

A DIURNAL DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGES TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
LOW TEMPERATURES => MID 70S INTERIOR. CLOSER TO 80 AT THE BEACHES.
/10

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD DURING
THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE
ON FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY FOR
GENERALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY ONLY
NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ON FRIDAY DROP
DOWN TO AROUND 1430DM...SUPPORTING READINGS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY HELPING TO CURB THE AFTERNOON WARMUP...SO DESPITE NEAR
STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESSES...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS
PRETTY WELL...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY DIFFERING BY 2
DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK EASTWARD A
BIT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH
THAN IT IS PRESENTLY. THIS SHOULD SPARE SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL EFFECTS...SPECIFICALLY LAND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION. SATURDAY COULD BE AN EXCEPTION IF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPICTED BY THE GFS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. THIS
FEATURE COULD INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS...WITH HOPE WE CAN
RAISE THEM EVEN MORE BASED ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

12/SIRMON

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SCTTRD TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SW AL. TSRA EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN
COVERAGE BETWEEN 04/1800 UTC-05/0200 UTC. IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
OUTSIDE OF TSRA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
BASES FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 3 TO 8 KT. /10

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW IS FORECAST
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM
THE SW ATLANTIC THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA STATE IS
EXPECTED. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN TSTMS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE LAND SEA INTERFACE EACH
AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO NEAR 2 FEET AT TIMES WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST. PREVAILING SEAS (AWAY FROM ANY STORMS) NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ANY HIGHER THAN 2 FEET THRU THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN REGARDING BURN
ACTIVITIES. HOWEVER FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...POSSIBLY IGNITING WILDFIRES
IN AREAS THAT HAVE BECOME VERY DRY DUE TO THE INTENSE HEAT OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. TRANSPORT WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 8
KNOTS...FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  77  94  76 /  50  20  40  10
PENSACOLA   95  80  93  79 /  50  20  30  10
DESTIN      93  81  89  81 /  50  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   98  76  97  75 /  50  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  99  75  97  74 /  40  20  40  20
CAMDEN      99  75  98  76 /  30  20  40  20
CRESTVIEW   96  76  95  74 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAW...CLARKE...WASHINGTON...AND
     WILCOX.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
     ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...AND WAYNE.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...AND STONE.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-061200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1230 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH THE 105 TO 110 RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS REMAINS ELEVATED. REFER TO THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR SITE SPECIFIC INFORMATION AND
PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS FOR YOUR LOCAL AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER LAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW
STORMS COULD INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS...WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
60 MPH IN ANY OF THESE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE DAYTIME HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

MIXING IN WITH THE HEAT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AREA
WIDE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
203 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALZ053-054-041945-
CLARKE-WILCOX-
203 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLARKE AND WILCOX COUNTIES...

AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THOMASVILLE STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF WILCOX COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...SHAWNEE...THOMASVILLE...ROUNDHILL...RURAL AND FULTON
THROUGH 245 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALZ061-MSZ079-042045-
UPPER MOBILE-GEORGE-
305 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GEORGE AND MOBILE COUNTIES...

AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...EARLVILLE...GEORGETOWN...LOTT AND WILMER THROUGH 345 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

ALZ060-042100-
COVINGTON-
322 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COVINGTON COUNTY...

AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREEN BAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
HOWELLS...STEDMAN AND FLORALA THROUGH 400 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.