River Flood Warning 51, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.AVIATION UPDATE...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2 AROUND THE AREA AT 630
WILL DISSIPATE BY DARK...POSSIBLY LEAVING A BRIEF PATCH OF MVFR
CEILINGS HERE AND THERE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG/HAZE AROUND SUNRISE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WORSE THAN MVFR....EXCEPT POSSIBLY IFR IN FOG
IN THE AREA FROM CEW TO GZH TO 0J4.  A BRIEF SPELL OF MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY VFR EXCEPT NEAR A
VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. /11

                           PREVIOUS

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...UPPER HIGH
CONTROLLING THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND WILL
INTENSIFY A BIT AND ENCOURAGE SURFACE FRONTOLYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE FORCING WITH INSTABILITY, LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE SUNDAY, BUT THAT UPPER HIGH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE
TO ISOLATED. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES LIMIT WET
MICROBURST RISK TO LOW. LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE GENERALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION.

HOT HUMID AND RAIN-FREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTM WORDING IN THE
FORECAST, BUT KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE BEACHES. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH  SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONGRUENT AND STEADY ON WESTLANT
CYCLOGENESIS MOVING WEST TO ONSLOW BAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT REGION BY MIDWEEK. SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL STORM WHICH COULD RAISE CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES HERE
SINCE IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS
IT DRIFTS WEST. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS MEANS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL EASE OFF A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS THIS WEEKEND. THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK TO THE EAST BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DIGGING DEEP OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA WHICH WILL BROADEN RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES. MID LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT IS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH.
THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS
ON THE MARINE AREA OTHER THAN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR A CONTINUED LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE FCST PERIOD...MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS REMAINING 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCE)...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST AT TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT... WITH VSBY'S EXPECTED
TO BE NO LOWER THAN MVFR RANGE ATTM. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT. AN UPPER HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HOT AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES
ARE 10 TO 15 % MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR MIXING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON SO HUMIDITY WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITERIA. DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 KFT LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  92  69  93 /  05  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   72  91  72  92 /  05  05  05  20
DESTIN      73  88  74  88 /  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   65  95  65  96 /  10  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  65  94  65  93 /  05  05  05  10
CAMDEN      65  95  65  95 /  05  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   65  95  64  96 /  10  05  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-240100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
800 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY
DENSE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.