River Flood Warning 11, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. ALOFT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET COMBINED WITH RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF EXITING JET TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO TO GIVE WAY TO
ENHANCED LIFT TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING...PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS A MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS
THE CWFA...GENERALLY FROM STONE CO IN MS TO JUST NORTH OF MOB TO
NEAR PNS AND THEN OFFSHORE NEAR DTS. THIS BOUNDARY COULD SHIFT NORTH
A LITTLE THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT.

WITH THIS...AND BETTER MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC SHIFTING EAST OVER
LOWER MS THIS MORNING COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD IN LOWER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING...SHIFTING EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUPPORT THIS
REASONING MOSTLY. BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER TEMPS ON THE
BACK SIDE FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE AND MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST AND CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A DRY
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
ALSO BE IN CONTROL...STARTING WITH A WEAK CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND TRANSITIONING TO A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON
SATURDAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING
FROM 66 TO 71 DEGREES. THE RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. ALONG WITH CLOUDS COMES A RETURN OF A WETTER
WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY...AS LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S (EXCEPT LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST)...AND LOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEGREES (OR
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER DRY (BUT COOLER)
PATTERN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK. WILL START OFF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL SENT HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
AS WE ONLY REACH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MON/TUE/WED. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S NORTH OF I-10 AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE
COAST. /22

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FRI. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...BKN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS FROM 100 TO 500
FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2K FEET EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OFF TO MOSTLY SCT CEILINGS AT AROUND 25K LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS
TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AND DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AT 5 TO
10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO WIDESPREAD STANDING WATER ON THE GROUND FOR
MOST AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
32/EE

&&

.FIRE...THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY MORNING A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RE-ESTABLISH AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING RH MUCH BELOW 40 PERCENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  50  70  48 /  30  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   72  53  68  52 /  60  05  00  00
DESTIN      67  56  67  52 /  80  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   76  45  69  45 /  60  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  45  68  44 /  30  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  46  66  44 /  50  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  48  71  46 /  70  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-221200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
615 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH NOON
TODAY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AT TIMES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO GREENVILLE ALABAMA. DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FLOODING OF STREETS...AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FEET WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
GIVE WAY TO SOME FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY STILL BE NEEDED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

ALZ051-211045-
CHOCTAW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...
407 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 404 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF PUSHMATAHA TO 11
MILES WEST OF EVANSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
CROMWELL...HALSELL...WYNDHAM...MELVIN...INDIAN SPRINGS...BUTLER...
EDNA AND TOXEY THROUGH 445 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
PERHAPS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
509 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

ALZ054-211200-
WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...
509 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 507 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF GASTONBURG TO
13 MILES WEST OF SUNNY SOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
CATHERINE...PRAIRIE...GASTONBURG...SUNNY SOUTH...REHOBOTH...PINE HILL
AND KIMBROUGH THROUGH 600 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL TO DIME
SIZE...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG COULD BRING DOWN DEAD OR DISEASED TREES AND LARGE LIMBS
RESULTING IN SERIOUS INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. LOCAL LOSS OF
ELECTRICAL POWER MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
612 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CRESTVIEW               30.76N 86.57W
01/21/2010                   OKALOOSA           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ROAD FLOODING IN THE CRESTVIEW
            AREA... LIVE OAK CHURCH RD 4700 BLOCK...CR 189 AT 6400
            BLOCK...AURA DRIVE NORTH OF STILLWELL...STANLEY LANE
            GULAVAR CUTOFF...1ST STREET AT VALLEY ROAD. HOME FLOODED
            ON STANLEY LANE.

&&

JOHNW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
738 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND VALPARAISO              30.51N 86.50W
01/21/2010  M45 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

0649 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND DESTIN                  30.41N 86.50W
01/21/2010  M41 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

0611 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND MARY ESTHER             30.43N 86.64W
01/21/2010  M46 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   ASOS

&&

JMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
746 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW MOBILE AIRPORT    30.65N 88.32W
01/20/2010                   MOBILE             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER FLOWING OVER NEWMAN ROAD NEAR AIRPORT AND NEWMAN
            ROAD INTERSECTION. ALSO...WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD ONE
            MILE WEST OF AIRPORT BLVD AND JOHNSON ROAD INTERSECTION.
            IN BOTH INSTANCES...WATER WAS AROUND SIX INCHES DEEP.

&&

JMM