Red Flag Warning 74, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANY FOG SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WAS SEEN ON FRI MORNING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF IFR
VSBYS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CUMULUS DURING THE DAY AND STRATUS SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SUSTAINED CIGS THROUGH 06Z. 34/JFB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010)...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...22.12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ATOP THE REGION AS
UPPER TROF PROGRESSES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. WE LOOK TO REMAIN
RAINFREE DURING THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD...OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA LATE SATURDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWS DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR. COOLEST NUMBERS IN THE NORTHEAST
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THERE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL SHOW A HIGHER MODERATING
TREND DUE TO RETURN OF HIGHER SURFACE BASED MOISTURE. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL
SATURDAY NIGHT. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEEP GULF MOISTURE OPENS UP WITH
INCREASING PRECIP WATERS OF AROUND 1.75" OR SO OVERSPREADING THE AREA
SUN AFTN THRU MON AM. AT SAME TIME...THERE IS A SIGNAL OF INCREASING
DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS EASTWARD THROUGH AR/LA. CONSIDERING DEEP LYR
MOISTURE AND LIFT PORTENDS THE BEST CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TSTMS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON AM AS SOME MODEST CAPE
(500-1000J/KG) IS SUGGESTED TO BE IN PLACE. LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONT TO MONITOR.

TUE AND WED...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEXT FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH DURING THE DAY THU WHICH FAVORS AN UPWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...RICHARD IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON/TUE
EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE
PENINSULA ON WED. THU AND FRI...HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE FOR RICHARD TO SURVIVE IF IT GAINS
ANY LATITUDE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 22.12Z RUN OF THE GFS/ECMWF
LOSE RICHARD'S CIRCULATION ALL TOGETHER BUT DO DIFFER ON HOW THE
WESTERLIES STRETCH OUT RICHARD'S TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS/EXPANDS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHUNTS DEEP MOISTURE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS AND LATEST EXTENDED
RANGE MOS OUTPUT...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE RAINFREE. NO CHANGES MADE TO
TEMPERATURES. /10

.MARINE...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BROAD SFC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEASTERLY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...ALSO BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT FLOW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAK IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SEAS
BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE
OFFSHORE...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS SUBSIDE. 12/DS

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO OPEN UP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS NIGHTTIME DISPERSION BECOMES
POOR ALONG WITH A MODERATION IN NEAR SURFACE BASED MOISTURE...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THE BEST
CHANCE OR COVERAGE THOUGH LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-231200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

DUE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES...THE RISK OF WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION COMBINED WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THE
ELEVATED RISK OF WILD FIRES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASING HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
SUNDAY...LASTING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. DUE TO MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH
GOOD FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...HELPING TO LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.