Red Flag Warning 42, NWS Mobile, AL

756 
WWUS84 KMOB 211928
RFWMOB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
228 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR A LONG DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LONG DURATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FLZ001-003-005-221200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.W.0042.000000T0000Z-100421T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.FW.A.0038.100422T1800Z-100422T2300Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-
228 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIP INTO THE
25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL DURATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 30 AND 34 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
447 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES OVERALL WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO
81 DEGREES... EXCEPT MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 47 TO 54 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 62 DEGREES ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST DOES NOT
SUPPORT RAIN AS THE RIDGE BRINGS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS
THE EAST GULF PROGRESSES EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN...THU LOOKS TO BE
A WARM DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF...FORMATION AND NORTHWARD MOVING COASTAL SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MODIFIED (COOLER) AT THE BEACHES.
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CONSENSUS IN THE DEEPENING AND EXPANSION OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO DEEPEN
WHILE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. MAY START TO GET
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING A SMALL PROBABILITY OF
TSTMS OVER SE MS BY FRI AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO DESTABILIZE. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SAT AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
EDGES CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY BY SAT AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE AREA THEN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL H85 SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY SAT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL EXHIBIT ROTATION AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP AND PERSISTENT ROTATING STORM
UPDRAFTS (TORNADOES) LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE AL TO WIGGINS MS SAT WITH AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE
THREAT BEING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST AL SAT EVENING.
SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
GOOD RAINFALL EPISODE AS WELL. HOPE THIS PANS OUT AS LOCAL YARDS AND
GARDENS ARE IN DIRE NEED. STAY TUNED AS LATER SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AND
FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS NEW WEATHER DATA IS RECEIVED.

WE EXPECT THE WET WEATHER TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUE. RAINFREE WEATHER ANTICIPATED MON/TUE. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WHICH IS WARM/MILD OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN MOVING MORE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL BY TUE. /10

&&

.AVIATION [21/12Z]...A SCATTERED STRATUS DECK AROUND 6000 FEET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 21/21Z...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TURN WEST AND DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. A MORE
ESTABLISHED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...POSSIBLY BECOMING
STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MEET CRITERIA FOR
DURATION TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR
WRN FL PNHNDL TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE SAME ZONES MAY SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY MEETING DURATION REQUIREMENTS ON THU.
THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE WARNING TODAY...A WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THU. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  54  81  61 /  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   77  58  79  63 /  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      74  61  76  64 /  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   79  47  85  56 /  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  79  51  85  60 /  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      78  48  85  57 /  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   80  48  86  54 /  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-220945-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
441 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODEL OUTPUTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
BY THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT THE MOMENT SATURDAY SHOWS THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER IN THE WEEK.

MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR INCREASED WIND AND SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TO THE AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.