Marine Weather Statement 4, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
332 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH THEN MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  TWO CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...ONE ON THE OLD BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST AND THE SECOND ON A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FURTHER INLAND.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THESE SURFACE FEATURES AND THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.  BOTH
THE NAM AND THE WRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MOVE A SIGNIFICANT
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF HIGHER POPS ARE WARRANTED
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.  HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE
HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PERSISTENCE
FROM WHERE FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT.  SMALL POPS FOLLOW FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.  DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE
KEPT CURRENT PACKAGE SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE
TO A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE AT NIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A LONGWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESUME AFTER MID WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL NOT SATISFY
DURATION REQUIREMENTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OTHERWISE REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  88  63  88 /  20  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   70  85  67  85 /  20  20  10  05
DESTIN      71  84  70  84 /  20  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   61  88  58  88 /  20  10  05  05
WAYNESBORO  59  86  55  87 /  20  10  05  10
CAMDEN      61  88  57  86 /  20  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  90  62  89 /  20  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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