Wind Chill Advisory 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST WED MAR 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO RIDE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY...THOUGH STILL A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU OVER ECFL. SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SKY IMPROVEMENTS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE
GOMEX AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ALL AREAS
FOR 15-20 MPH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH UNTIL 23Z
(6PM). WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY. AN OVERALL
COOL DAY IN STORE WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY DAWN THURSDAY. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS METRO
ORLANDO AND LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH DAY BREAK THURSDAY. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE AND MAKE A DECISION FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE IF A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL A GOOD DEAL OF WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU KVRB NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT IMPROVEMENTS BY MID-LATE AFTN. SFC WND G25KT THROUGH 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONGLY WORDED SCA CONTINUES ALL LEGS
THRU 21Z (4PM) WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 25 KTS
OFFSHORE WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. AT 21Z...SCA CONTINUES FOR
OFFSHORE ZONES...THOUGH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS STILL LIKELY NEAR
SHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS)...EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 280-290
AZIMUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GULF SOURCE COMPONENT...WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY NOT LEAD TO CRITICAL DRYING DURING THE DAY. RH VALUES
HOWEVER COUPLED WITH WINDS WILL LEAD TO DRYER CONDITIONS THIS AFTN.
RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
757 AM EST WED MAR 3 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-032100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
757 AM EST WED MAR 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A GALE CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH CHOPPY
WAVES WILL OCCUR OVER OPEN LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL PRODUCE A LOW ENVIRONMENTAL THREAT
FOR SPREAD OF NEW OR EXISTING FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FIRE WEATHER
SENSITIVITY WILL BE HEIGHTENED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PENDERGRAST/SEDLOCK