Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
958 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY URBANIZED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER A FEW
OUTLYING RURAL OBSERVATION SITES DID FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE INTERIOR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE TOO MUCH TODAY. LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BUT IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES TOO THICK
COULD EVEN BE COLDER THIS AFTERNOON THEN CURRENT FORECAST
PORTRAYS. AS FORECAST STANDS NOW HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
FROM LAKE TO INTERIOR VOLUSIA TO LOW/MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WIND CHILL/FREEZE HEADLINES FROM THIS
MORNING AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE EQUALLY
TRICKY AS THIS MORNING'S. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CIRRUS DECK
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES
EASTWARDS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE GRADIENT...2-3MB RATHER THAN
4MB THIS MORNING...MIGHT ALLOW A FEW LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE...OR AT
LEAST DROP SPEEDS TO AROUND 3MPH. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CIRRUS DECK ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE
CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS AREAWIDE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE FAR NW WITH TEMPS IN THESE AREAS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 28F.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR W/CIGS ABV FL120.

&&

.MARINE...OBS AT BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 5 FT WITH N/NW
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST VALUES.
WILL THEREFORE REMOVE SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER WITH WINDS CONTINUING OUT OF THE N/NW NEAR THE 15 KT MARK
TODAY SEAS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE GULF STREAM AROUND 6 FT
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA TODAY
WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR
AT THE SFC. AFT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER LAKE AND INT VOLUSIA
TO LOW/MID 50S FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL PRODUCE AT LEAST 4 HOURS
OF RH BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS WITH MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. SO WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOONS RED
FLAG WARNING FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO REMOVE COUNTIES LATER WHERE
CONDS DONT LOOK TO PAN OUT.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

WEITLICH/VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-040330-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1050 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WHICH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HOUSE AND APARTMENT FIRES POSE A REAL DANGER IN FLORIDA DURING
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. KEEP FLAMMABLE MATERIAL SUCH AS DRAPERIES...
CLOTHING OR NEWSPAPERS AWAY FROM PORTABLE HEATERS. MAKE SURE THAT
SMOKE DETECTORS ARE WORKING PROPERLY BEFORE GOING TO SLEEP TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR THOSE PERSONS WHO PLAN ON ENTERING THE
CHILLY SURF TODAY...SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD...AND
NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TODAY WITH
SEAS UP TO AROUND 6 FEET OVER GULF STREAM WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A MODERATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CONTINUED
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING...AND
FROST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES...WATCHES AND WARNINGS TO BE POSTED DURING THIS COLD
WEATHER EPISODE.

THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY...WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD FURTHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEITLICH/MOSES