Red Flag Warning 60, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN PROSPECTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...HIGH SEAS/SURF LATE THIS WEEK AND THRU WEEKEND...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STILL HAS AXIS TO OUR WEST...WHICH IS KEEPING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
FROM VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE TODAY
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF RIDGE AND A LITTLE VEERING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO NORTH NORTHEAST. WITH RIDGING
ALOFT...THE CURRENT CLOUD FREE SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE...SO
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BUT NOT CHANGE POSITION MUCH...SO
ANY VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO ONSHORE WILL BE SLIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LITTLE ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS
PUSHING ACROSS THE COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL
MODERATION TREND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THUR-FRI...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OPEN NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA THURS. A WAVE OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SURGE OF NORTHEAST
FLOW...MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF THESE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISO LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL JUST ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST THURS NIGHT WHEN MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS
PEAK OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE CONDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS U70S/NEAR 80, LOWS
U50S/L60S).

SAT-WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY OVER
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN DEVELOP A SYSTEM OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z GFS RUN BRINGS
THIS FRONT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WED WITH THE ECMWF STILL FARTHER
WEST WITH THE BOUNDARY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THIS SYSTEM IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
PLEASANT IN THE LONG TERM WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS...PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW 4-5SM BR THROUGH 12Z OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...THROUGH TONIGHT THE PROXIMITY OF NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND ONLY
VEER A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS TODAY BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE NEAR 2 FOOT WIND CHOP TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY BACKGROUND SWELL SO SEAS TO 5 FEET EXPECTED OFFSHORE.
LATE TONIGHT SOME 6 FOOT SEAS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS.

THURS-SUN...STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DEVELOP A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DEGRADE MARINE CONDS OVER THE AREA THURS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS INTO THURS NIGHT AND QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS
TO 7 TO 10 FT WITH HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN AND OVER FLORIDA. HOWEVER LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST
SWELLS ORIGINALLY GENERATED BTW THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH FORECASTED WAVE
HEIGHTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 12-15 FT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS OVER THE WATERS...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...AFTER AREAWIDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TUE...EXPECT THE
AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY...ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO VEER TO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH FOR LAKE COUNTY TO A WARNING AND ALSO
INCLUDED WESTERN ORANGE. ALSO EXPECT RH BELOW 35 PERCENT TO OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF THERE.

THU-FRI...INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO FRI. THIS STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MITIGATE ANY CRITICALLY LOW RH CONCERNS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR MAY CONTINUE TO
SEE MIN RH VALUES NEAR 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  57  78  62 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  79  56  80  59 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  78  61  79  65 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  79  62  80  66 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  79  56  79  58 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  79  57  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  80  59  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  79  58  79  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-102200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
430 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN EAST SWELL WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK TODAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. CHECK
WITH LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF AND NEVER SWIM ALONE IN
THE OCEAN.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS AND DANGEROUS SURF
ALONG THE BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

LASCODY