Red Flag Warning 44, NWS Melbourne, FL

815 
WWUS82 KMLB 032303
RFWMLB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
703 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-041000-
/O.EXP.KMLB.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-101003T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.FW.A.0037.101004T1600Z-101004T2200Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-
703 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...WITH LONG
DURATIONS (4 TO 5 HOURS) OF CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 10 TO 12 MPH AGAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 TO
96 HOURS. PLEASE MONITOR UPCOMING FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

$$


MOSES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
442 AM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...N/NW FLOW AROUND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE JAX WILL
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE SHOWERS IN
MARTIN COUNTY EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVE IN. OTHERWISE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE WITH SOME UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE LAKE.

MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH A DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 AND
1.0 INCHES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TUE-SAT...MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION/S SHOWING VERY DRY AIR
MASS FROM AROUND 850MB AND UP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY/MEANDERS OVER
THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR THE
SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO AND RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER FLORIDA. RESULTANT
NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW DRAWS ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
BUT THE INVERSION IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 850MB. KEEP 20 OR LESS POP FOR THE WHOLE TIME FRAME
WITH BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SHOWERS OVER THE VERY SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEAST
CARRIBEAN SEA SHOULD PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY AT DAB EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE JAX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NE
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 15-20 KNOTS MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT ESP IN THE GULF
STREAM. HAVE HEADLINED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THERE.
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE GULF STREAM.

MON-THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND TROUGHING OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTH
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARRIBEAN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS INCREASES NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM OVERNIGHT TUE THROUGH THU. NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
SHOULD HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8-10 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AND TO 8
FEET THE REST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS. COMBINED WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5K FT THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM MIXING
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR TO THE SFC AND PRODUCING 4 TO 5 HOURS OF
CRITICAL (SUB-35 PERCENT) RH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. WILL
RAISE RED FLAG WARNING FROM INTERR VOLUSIA TO NW OSCEOLA.
FORECASTING MIN RH VALUES TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE WARNING
AREA BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN
SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL NOT BE A VERY FIRE SENSITIVE DAY THOUGH
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND NORTH WINDS 10-12 MPH.

MON...DRIER AIR STILL PRESENT OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DRY AIR MASS ABOVE
850MB AND GIVEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR MASS
DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LOWER DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. THIS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON MIN RH/S
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS THAT BORDER ADJACENT WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.

TUE-THU...WINDS ACQUIRE A NORTH NORTHEAST COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RAISING DEW POINTS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NW WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP MIN RHS TO 32-35 PCT ACROSS NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME QUESTION WHETHER LONG
DURATIONS WILL BE REACHED SO WILL NOT RAISE WATCH AT THIS POINT.
LOW LVL FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEGINS TO VEER TO ONSHORE WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE LOW LVL MOISTURE LEVELS. NO MIN RH CONCERNS
FOR MID WEEK BUT GUSTY NE WINDS WILL BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CSTL COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  61  81  63 /  10   0  10  20
MCO  84  62  83  63 /  10   0  10  10
MLB  83  65  82  66 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  85  66  84  69 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  84  60  83  61 /  10   0  10  10
SFB  84  62  84  63 /  10   0  10  10
ORL  84  63  83  65 /  10   0  10  10
FPR  85  65  83  68 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
552 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-021600-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
552 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST AT THE BEACHES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CHECK CONDITIONS WITH BEACH PATROLS WHEN
ARRIVING AT THE BEACH AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND WILL COVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO DETERIORATE
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL INCREASE AT
THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY