Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
513 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES TODAY...
...BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY...
...A SOAKING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...MAINLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE COME LOCALIZED PATCHY (SHALLOW) FOG
EARLY ON NEAR SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN PRONE LOCATIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY GET NUDGED
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL AS SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL
LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS THE SEA BREEZE...THAT WILL BE
FLOWING OVER "SHELF WATER" TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...WILL BE
EARLIER IN STARTING AND BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 AND NORTH OF CENTRAL BREVARD
COUNTY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH UPPER 70S MOST EVERY
PLACE ELSE. LOWS MILDER AND MORE SEASONAL WITH READINGS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH AN OUTGOING TIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE WARMER WEATHER/SPRING BREAK LEADING TO MORE BEACHGOERS.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF OVER TX/OK
TODAY AND SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU
SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUN
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WARM S/SE
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS AND SEND MAX TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. EXPECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO BE DRY BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS ARE ADVERTISING LIKELY (60%)
POPS ORLANDO NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH ARRIVAL OF
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR. GFS MOS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER 60S
NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH. NAM MOS IS NOT AS MOIST BUT HAVE SIDED
WITH THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF BUOYANCY AND
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR LATE SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AT 18Z. BUT PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
A SHALLOW SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD FORCE A FEW LATE DAY
STORMS. SO HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO MOST AREAS. THERE IS A LOW THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOCUSED ON THE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG 250 MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF CUT-OFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS CENT FL AND
WIDESPREAD RAINS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. GFS PUSHES
HIGHEST BUOYANCY AND SHEAR OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT COULD
STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE. WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINS OF AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-THU...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF LINGER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENT
AND SOUTH MONDAY MORNING SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH SCT (30-40%)
RAIN CHANCES. BREEZY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS MONDAY WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUE AND PROGGED TO BE OVERHEAD WED WHICH WILL SERVE
TO EASE THE WINDS THOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE
AGAIN ON TUE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WED AND THU. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TUE-WED. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT MON
WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 70S BY THU WITH A FEW 80 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S MON NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE SOME LCL PATCHY FOG DEVELOP FROM 09Z-12Z CREATING MVFR
VIS...OTHERWISE VFR INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PENINSULA WILL DRIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THE DAY. WINDS VARIABLE AND LIGHT EARLY ON
BECOMING (ONSHORE) EAST/SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST...BECOMING 15-20 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY
OFFSHORE. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE IN A
MODERATE NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRODUCE RATHER POOR BOATING CONDS WITH CHOPPY SEAS.
HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO
7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WILL AT LEAST REQUIRE A CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FOR WINDS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS LATE
IN THE DAY.

MON-WED...POST FRONTAL WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
ON MON DECREASING SLIGHTLY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
TOWARDS FL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE WATERS
WED WILL LEAD TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HERE. AWAY FROM THE COAST... THE DRY/LOW
DEW POINT AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MODIFY AND AM EXPECTING 4 TO 5
HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY). WILL HOIST RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND
WESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY OUT OF
THE RFW...BUT WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1-3 HOURS OF CRITICAL
LOW RH'S BEFORE MODIFICATION OCCURS HERE.

NO LOW RH CONCERNS SUNDAY OR MONDAY THOUGH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE GOOD DISPERSION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. MIN
RH VALUES SHOULD LOWER TO 35 PERCENT OR A BIT LOWER TUE AND WED
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  57  77  53 /   0   0  60  60
MCO  78  57  80  56 /   0   0  50  60
MLB  75  59  80  54 /   0   0  40  60
VRB  76  59  82  55 /   0   0  20  60
LEE  77  57  78  54 /   0   0  60  60
SFB  78  57  80  55 /   0   0  50  60
ORL  78  58  79  56 /   0   0  50  60
FPR  76  58  82  58 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
523 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
523 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BEACHGOERS BEWARE...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AT
AREA BEACHES. THIS THREAT WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY ON DUTY LIFEGUARDS
ON THE PREVIOUS DAY ACCORDING TO THEIR VISUAL OBSERVATIONS OF SURF
ZONE CONDITIONS. A HIGH THREAT MEANS THAT RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS...LARGER...AND STRONGER THAN NORMAL. IF ENCOUNTERED
...THEY WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PULL EVEN THE MORE EXPERIENCED
OCEAN SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER WATER.

A LONG PERIOD SWELL SUPPORTS ADVERSE SURF ZONE CONDITIONS TODAY.
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT BEACHGOERS DO NOT ENTER THE SURF.
HOWEVER...IF BRAVELY ENTERING THE COOL SURF...BE SURE THAT A
LIFEGUARD IS NEARBY AND KNOWS THAT YOU ARE ENTERING THE WATER.
NEVER SWIM ALONE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES...NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SEDLOCK