Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK...

CURRENTLY/OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS A BAND OF CIRRUS
EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE NRN GULF THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC THIN CIRRUS SO
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LVL
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH ARE ALSO STAYING UP A BIT STRONGER THAN
PROGD BY THE MODELS BUT 00Z NAM GUID SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
TRENDS WITH WINDS DECREASING FROM 06Z-12Z. CAPE 915 MHZ PROFILER
SHOWS WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK WITH
TEMPS ALSO STAYING UP A BIT WARMER THUS FAR THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS LOWS IN MID-UPR 30S TO LWR 40S MARTIN COAST. WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH BUT MAY BE A BIT WARMER WITH THE CIRRUS AND WINDS A BIT
SLOWER TO DROP OFF. WILL KEEP PATCHY FROST ACROSS MAINLY NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

TUESDAY OUTLOOK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NE GULF AND FL PANHANDLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 18Z GFS FORECASTS LOW
PRESSURE TO 998 MBS NEAR THE PANHANDLE WITH 850 MB WINDS INCREASING
TO 65 KNOTS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. 00Z NAM GUID ALSO INDICATING WINDS
INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS AT 850 MBS BY 15Z (10 AM) TUE MORNING.
IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM HELICITY ALSO FORECAST BY THE NAM MODEL IN THE
WARM SECTOR. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM GUID INDICATES SFC BASED CAPE AND
BEST LIS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE ON THE INSTABILITY FRONT DURING THE
DAY ON TUE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED ON MONDAY AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TO INITIALIZE
WINDS A BIT STRONGER TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE...BUT STILL INDICATE DECREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT. SCEC
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MONDAY...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST UPGRADE OF CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AND EXPANSION AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO 4-5 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FROM LAKE/INTERIOR VOLUSIA TO OSCEOLA COUNTIES. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE THE EXTENT OF RETURN ONSHORE FLOW
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COASTAL
COUNTIES SAW 1-3 HOURS OF CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES...ESP
FURTHER INLAND.

COOL DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING MINIMUM RHS INTO THE 30 -
35 PCT RANGE OVER INLAND COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY AFT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-
     NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.

&&

VOLKMER/SPRATT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
954 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY
BEYOND 20 MILES OF THE COAST.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WILL PRODUCE A FIRE DANGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE A FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND BRING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL DETERIORATE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY/SEDLOCK