Hurricane Local Statement 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

023 
WTUS82 KMLB 282231
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE AND
MARTIN. 

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA....OKEECHOBEE...AND
BREVARD...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A
CONCERN.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5N...LONGITUDE 82.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE FL. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST
TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE
TREASURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SQUALLS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH RAINBANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SINCE THE MAIN THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
READY TO ACT IF FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THERE AREA.

LAND AREAS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SHOULD CONSIDER BRINGING
IN LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH COULD GET BLOWN AROUND. FOR COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.
IN ALL CASES...PEOPLE SHOULD BE RESPONDING ACCORDING TO THEIR
PERSONAL OR BUSINESS EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND FREQUENT GUSTS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 1 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. 

FLZ054-059-064-290600-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PORT SAINT LUCIE
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. 

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 
UP TO 24 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST
IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THOUGH WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS ON WEDNESDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. REPEATED
MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ANY
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD KEEP HIGHER AMOUNTS OFFSHORE. MOST
FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING TONIGHT AS RAIN SQUALLS
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

$$

AMZ555-572-575-290600-
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.0001.100928T2231Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED IN RAIN SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 
UP TO 30 PERCENT. 

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN SQUALLS INTERACT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

$$

FLZ045-046-053-147-290600-
/O.EXA.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...MINOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX AND A HALF INCHES AND MINOR ROAD FLOODING
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE
THE MOST DANGEROUS HAZARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. REPEATED
MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. RAINFALL
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES OFFSHORE. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF
FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.
WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING TONIGHT AS RAIN SQUALLS
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

$$

FLZ047-058-290600-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...MINOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX AND A HALF INCHES AND MINOR ROAD FLOODING
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY
SMALL. 

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE
THE MOST DANGEROUS HAZARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ACROSS
THE AREAS. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. REPEATED
MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THIS AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 9 INCHES.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST
ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF
THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART
CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING TONIGHT AS RAIN SQUALLS
INTERACT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

$$

AMZ552-290600-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
631 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
12 TO 18 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTS WILL INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET 20 MILES
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT ON WEDNESDAY
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN SQUALLS INTERACT
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

$$

760 
WTUS82 KMLB 290407
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1207 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE AND
MARTIN. 

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR ORANGE...SEMINOLE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...AND
OKEECHOBEE...IMPACTS FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL A
CONCERN.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE ISSUED
FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9N...LONGITUDE 81.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT
460 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL...OR ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE FL. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. THE STORM INTENSITY WAS 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEPRESSION IS THEN FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE TREASURE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SQUALLS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE SQUALLS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
RAIN BANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MAIN THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND MINOR FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR THERE AREA. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.
NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR.

LAND AREAS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SHOULD CONSIDER BRINGING
IN LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH COULD GET BLOWN AROUND. FOR COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.
IN ALL CASES...PEOPLE SHOULD BE RESPONDING ACCORDING TO THEIR
PERSONAL OR BUSINESS EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND FREQUENT GUSTS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 7 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FLZ054-059-064-291400-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
1207 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WOBBLES EAST...LITTLE EFFECT
ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA. 

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 25
PERCENT.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...THOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS ON
WEDNESDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND
MARTIN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. REPEATED
MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES. RAINFALL
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
SQUALLS INCREASE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. 

$$

AMZ555-572-575-291400-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1207 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WOBBLES EAST...LITTLE EFFECT
ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 32
PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

FLZ045>047-053-058-147-291400-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1207 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...MINOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WOBBLES EAST...LITTLE EFFECT
ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ACROSS THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE
THE MOST DANGEROUS HAZARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. REPEATED MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 3 TO 7
INCHES IN THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 8 TO 9 INCHES. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM FLORIDA.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS RAIN SQUALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA

$$

AMZ552-291400-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
1207 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY OCCUR.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTS WILL INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET 20 MILES
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT ON WEDNESDAY
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

MOSES

484 
WTUS82 KMLB 290946
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
546 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE COAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...
AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. 

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...BREVARD...
OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM INLAND
FLOODING AND BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL A CONCERN.

ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

ALWAYS PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3N...LONGITUDE 81.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL...OR ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE FL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH. A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. 

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...
SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL 
STORM TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA 
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE TREASURE 
COAST TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH PASSING SQUALLS AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE.

MORE SO...THESE SQUALLS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH 
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON 
TUESDAY. FOR EVENT TOTALS...THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED ACCUMULATED 
AMOUNTS UP TO 9 TO 12 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

A FEW TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN RAINBANDS... 
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURING NEAR THE COAST FROM JUPITER INLET 
TO CAPE CANAVERAL. 

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO AGGRESIVELY COMPLETE
ALL PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR PERSONAL OR BUSINESS EMERGENCY
PLAN FOR TROPICAL STORMS.

FOR INTERESTS WITHIN COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA. 

FLZ054-059-064-300900-
/O.UPG.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TI.W.0001.100929T0946Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TR.W.1016.100929T0946Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
546 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE
NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

$$

AMZ555-572-575-301000-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
546 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

FLZ045>047-053-058-147-301000-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
546 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TRACK AS THIS WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA IMPACTS.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY...BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ACROSS THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE
THE MOST DANGEROUS HAZARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN
TODAY. REPEATED MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM FLORIDA.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING THIS MORNING AS RAIN
SQUALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA

$$

AMZ552-301000-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
546 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE TODAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET 20 MILES
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

880 
WTUS82 KMLB 291030
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE COAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...
AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. 

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...BREVARD...
OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM INLAND
FLOODING AND BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL A CONCERN.

ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

ALWAYS CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3N...LONGITUDE 81.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL...OR ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT PIERCE FL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.
A MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...
AND BE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR MARTIN...
SAINT LUCIE...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR
THE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...
AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THOUGH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WITH PASSING SQUALLS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE.

MORE SO...THESE SQUALLS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON
TUESDAY. FOR EVENT TOTALS...THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATED AMOUNTS UP TO 9 TO 12 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING.

A FEW TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN RAINBANDS...
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OCCURING NEAR THE COAST FROM JUPITER
INLET TO CAPE CANAVERAL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO AGGRESIVELY
COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR PERSONAL OR BUSINESS
EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL STORMS.

FOR INTERESTS WITHIN COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND NOON TODAY. 

FLZ054-059-064-300900-
/O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
630 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE
NOW BEEN ISSUED.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS FURTHER 
DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME HAZARDOUS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...CONSIDER WHETHER YOU NEED TO
TEMPORARILY LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...BUT STAY JUST BELOW THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN PASSING SQUALLS.

MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THE ONSET OF OVERALL INCREASED WINDS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR. 

SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN
TODAY. REPEATED MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 5 TO 8 INCHES IN
THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY SEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 9
TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SQUALLS INCREASE ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

$$

AMZ555-572-575-301030-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
630 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION
THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

FLZ045>047-053-058-147-301030-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
630 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TRACK AS THIS WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA IMPACTS.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY...BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY. THE
LATEST FORECAST IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ACROSS THE AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FLOODING WILL BE
THE HAZARD OF MOST CONCERN FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN.
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN
TODAY. REPEATED MOVEMENT OF SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES FOR
EVENT TOTALS. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM FLORIDA.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING THIS MORNING AS SQUALLS
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA

$$

AMZ552-301030-
/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
630 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE TODAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET 20 MILES OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY AND NOT VENTURE OUT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. 

$$

688 
WTUS82 KMLB 291549
HLSMLB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...LAND
WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE OF
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6N...LONGITUDE 80.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 340 MILES
SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE FL. A MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NICOLE WILL MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 
40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE NICOLE IS ABSORBED BY AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES MAINLY EAST FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM CUBA IS 996
MB OR 29.41 INCHES.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AND PASS
OFFSHORE FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...THOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO
30 TO 40 MPH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH PASSING SQUALLS
AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SQUALLS BUT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DECREASING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR MARINE INTERESTS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AS WARRANTED.

FLZ054-059-064-291700-
/O.CAN.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100930T0900Z/
/O.CAN.KMLB.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE TREASURE COAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM NICOLE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THIS EVENING...
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE IN RAIN SQUALLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE. THE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWEST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST
MAY REACH ONE TO THREE INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SQUALLS THAT
MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

$$

AMZ575-292200-
/O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM NICOLE APPROACHES...WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO 35 
KNOTS AND GUSTY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FEET
TONIGHT.

$$

AMZ555-572-291700-
/O.CAN.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY
AND NOT VENTURE OUT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT.

$$

FLZ045>047-053-058-147-291700-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM NICOLE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD. WINDS WILL
BE LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
PASSING RAIN SQUALLS EXPECTED.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE COAST WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

$$

AMZ552-291700-
/O.CAN.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
1149 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AS THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT MAY WISH TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY
AND NOT VENTURE OUT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT.


$$

MRV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...WET AND STORMY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LEADING EDGE OF "COOL" FRONTAL BDRY IS WELL-DELINEATED BY
NRLY WIND SHIFT AND LOW CLOUD DECK ON VIS SATELLITE AND HAS ACTUALLY
SAGGED SWD INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA COS. CURRENTLY THE BDRY LIES ACROSS A
BKV-SFB-EVB (BROOKSVILLE TO JUST N OF SANFORD TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH)
LINE. CONVECTION REDEVELOPED OVER ECFL AFTER ABOUT 08Z...IN PART DUE
TO LINGERING JET FORCED ASCENT FROM DEPARTING MID-UPR TROUGH...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE SUNRISE AS TROUGH AND ASCD
JTSTRK ARE PULLING NWD. STILL...VERY DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS AOA 2.1")
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RELATIVELY LOW ENVIRONMENTAL ATM PRES
AND MODEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD CONSPIRE TO GIVE GENEROUS COVERAGE
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TDY...AND AS SUCH HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60/70%
AREAWIDE. WITH ONGOING CLOUDS/CONVECTION...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
BDRYS (LEFTOVER STORM SCALE/DIFF HEATING AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES) TO
PRODUCE IRREGULAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND AS
SUCH IT'S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LCLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SIMILAR TO TUE...SOME STRONGER TS WITH FQT LTG/
GUSTY WINDS/TORRENTIAL RAIN LOOK TO BE STORM THREATS TODAY.

GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS...HAVE SHAVED A BIT OFF MAXES TDY...WITH MOST
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO 90F AT BEST.

PREVIOUS DISC...

TONIGHT...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AROUND 1-2
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWER BANDS CAN DEVELOP.

WED-THURS...TRIED TO TREND CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WRT
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO FAST WITH THE FEATURE. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THE
LOW WILL LIFT FROM NEAR WESTERN CUBA AROUND SUNRISE WED TOWARD SE FL
THROUGH WED EVENING. THE LIFTING MID/UPPER TROF SHOULD THEN HELP
ACCELERATE SYSTEM NE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS TIMING WOULD
BRING THE HIGHEST POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING WED
WITH A GRADUAL TREND DOWNWARD INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
NEED TO REFINE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR NOW...TRENDED POPS HIGHEST
SE SECTIONS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TREASURE COAST ON WED AND LIKELY
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY SLOWING OR DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM COULD
WORSEN LOCAL WX CONDITIONS FURTHER SO CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FRI-MON...LATEST INDICATIONS FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE FOR
IMPROVED WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY DECREASED
TEMP/HUMIDITY LEVELS AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES. POPS REDUCED TO
ISOLD/LOW END CHANCE AT MOST. 20/30 POPS STILL IN THIS PACKAGE BUT
MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER FURTHER IF TRENDS HOLD THROUGH NEXT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION.. EXPECT INCRSG COVRG OF SHRA/TS WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS...BCMG NMRS THIS AFTN WITH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL.

&&

.MARINE...WILL NEED TO DO SOME "MICRO-CASTING" DUE TO THE NRLY WIND
SHIFT HAVING STALLED OUT OVER THE NRN MARINE LEG. PLAN TO INDICATE
POSN OF BDRY AS BEST AS NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD CO LINE...SINCE
IT IS THE LCL MARINE ZONE BDRY...AND WILL PROBABLY REFERENCE SERLY
WINDS OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON. OTRW...WINDS AND SEAS WL GRDLY INCRS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...REACHING SCEC LVLS OFFSHORE SOMETIME
THIS EVENING...AND SCA TWD SUNRISE WED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282400-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1225 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST SHOULD LIMIT STORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE MORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE ORLANDO
AREA NORTHWARD NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE GREATER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 TO 40
MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE ANY PERSISTENT
SHOWER BAND ACTIVITY OCCURS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT FOR INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND GENERALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
SHOWER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE TREASURE COAST
INTO TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A WATERSPOUT ALONG THE NEARSHORE AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DETERIORATING
BOATING CONDITIONS. INTERESTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.

AFTER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE THIS WEEK...HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED AS A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

SEDLOCK/WEITLICH/GLITTO