Freeze Warning 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EST MON JAN 11 2010

...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH CENTER OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SEWD NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN SOME SLACKENING
OF THE PGRAD. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID/UPPER
50S IN THE SOUTH. THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT
RELATIVELY PLEASANT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS. A
FREEZE WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF
TREASURE COAST COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THIS IN EFFECT AND DAY SHIFT CAN
EXAMINE 12Z DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON FREEZE WARNING AREAS.

TUES-TUES NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR ON TUES WILL
KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL STILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD
TO LOW 60S FARTHER SOUTH EVEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY FOR TUES NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT NW WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IS A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
OVER NORMALLY COLDER/WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS REACH
NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD SUNRISE.

WED-FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS WED WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY
THURS/FRI WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES IN THE 70S
BY LATE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI AND WITH ONSHORE TRANSPORT WIND DEVELOPING COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO REACH THE COAST BUT CHANCES RIGHT NOW LOOK
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE FORECAST ATTM.

SAT-SUN...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SFC. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL REACH THE
NRN GULF EARLY SAT AND PUSH TOWARD THE NE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SAT MORN. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT AND
BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER EXACT TIMING IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE FRONT BUT MOST FAVORED TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 40% FOR THIS TIME FRAME. AS
THE MODELS STAND RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEWPTS IN LOW 60S) WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE TSRA MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY INDICATION OF
INCREASING STORM THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...NW-NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR OFFSHORE AND SRN NEAR SHORE LEGS INTO
THIS EVENING UNTIL SEA HEIGHTS SLOWLY DECLINE BACK BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. A WEAK COOL AIR RESURGENCE TUES MAY BE ABLE TO BUILD
WINDS OFFSHORE UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NW. BUT SHOULD THEN SEE
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK AS THEY VEER TO THE E/NE WED/THURS AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI.
SEAS LOOK TO EXIST UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE TUES WITH A GRADUALLY
DECLINING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY JANUARY 11...

                           DAB 27 (1982)
                           MCO 29 (1982)
                           MLB 26 (1982)
                           VRB 28 (1970)

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED WATCH AREA TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RHS TODAY. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA TUES WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ECFL. WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR (LAKE AND VOLUSIA
SOUTHWARD TO OKEECHOBEE AND NRN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  52  28  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  53  31  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  56  32  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  32  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  51  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  54  30  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  33  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  33  62  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

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