Coastal Flood Statement 5, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REBUILD WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND GENERATE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS
TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE CAPE.
FARTHER SOUTH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT WILL BE DELAYED
TIL MID AFTERNOON WITH INLAND MOVEMENT LIMITED. WITH THIS LACK
OF/LATE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH A
FAIRLY STOUT DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...ONLY A SLIGHT
MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE COAST FROM MID/LATE
AFT WHERE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND WHERE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE ECSB BOUNDARY. HOWEVER CHANCES
REMAIN LOW WITH POPS AT 20-30% AND WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
STORM DEVELOPMENT (IF ANY) WILL BE LIMITED.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE EARL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND LOW TIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE SAT BETWEEN
FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. BUT WITH A DRIER POCKET OF AIR
ACROSS THE AREA INITIALLY AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 20-30 PERCENT...EXCEPT 40
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY BUT TAIL END MAY SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE POOLING AND LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MOS POPS HAVE
JUMPED TO 40-60 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE ALSO
PROGGED SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT EXCEPT 50 PERCENT IN
THE SOUTH.

ON MON HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EAST
FLOW WILL BRIDGE REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH. A POCKET OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS STILL PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WITH MORE
ONSHORE FLOW...THE HIGHEST POPS (40 PERCENT) SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTH INTERIOR.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE AN
ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED POPS.
THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY STATED IN THE FORECAST OR GRIDS YET...EXPECT
MAIN COASTAL CHANCES TO BE DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING AND THE MAIN
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG CREATE MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM
TODAY WITH ONLY REAL SHOT FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE FAR SOUTH
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BY MID/LATE AFT. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHRAS/ISO TSRA THAT CAN DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41009 WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE THROUGH 4 AM
FROM 7-8 FT TO 10 FT THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL SWELLS WERE
BUILDING IN. HOWEVER SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE THESE SWELLS SUBSIDE
INTO THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HURRICANE EARL NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS CONTINUES TO PUSH N/NE. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE
SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS AND THEN END THE ADVISORY
NEARSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS OFFSHORE SHOULD DROP BELOW 7
FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO DUE TO THESE DECREASING
SWELLS...WILL ALLOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO END.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE WIND FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT WEST
ON SAT TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON MON. SWELLS WILL DIMINISH
TO 3 FEET OR LESS SUN-MON.

WITH BAR CUTS AND RESIDUAL SWELLS...THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE HIGH SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  10  10  20  20
MCO  94  74  92  75 /  10  10  30  20
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  30  20
VRB  92  73  91  74 /  20  20  30  20
LEE  93  74  92  76 /  10  10  30  20
SFB  94  74  93  76 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  94  75  93  77 /  10  10  30  20
FPR  91  73  92  73 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY

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