Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
139 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

.UPDATE...

LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS KEEPS VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A
BIT LONGER. THIS PROLONGS THE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH EAST
AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING. EHI AT
NEAR 3 AT MKE AND MSN AT 22Z AND 23Z...AND STILL 1.5 TO 2.0 AT
03Z. BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS BETWEEN 35 AT 45. CAP AT 900 MB
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND BREAKS BY 20Z.

LATEST 4 KM 15Z WRF DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION AFTER 00Z IN A LINE
FROM NEAR OSHKOSH TO MADISON TO LAFAYETTE COUNTY. MODEL KEEPS CELLS
FAIRLY DISCRETE WITH AROUND 5 OR 6 SEPARATE STORMS.

THE LATEST HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 21Z.

APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS WITH PARAMETERS INCREASING
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010/

SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. BY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS MINNESOTA TO KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN
AND WESTERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT AS THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST.
THE 12Z NAM SPLITS THE SHORTWAVE WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SOUTHERN ONE EXITING EASTERN COLORADO
THE NORTHERN THIS EVENING.

ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR NOW AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS THEN WEAKENS BY
EVENING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL BE GREATEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON NAM SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM 3000
TO 4000 J/KG. CAP AROUND 900 MB WEAKENS BY MID AFTERNOON ON BOTH
RUC AND NAM SOUNDING. HELICITY NEAR 200 OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RUC SHOWS EHI AROUND 3 IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT A LITTLE
LOWER WITH AROUND 1.5 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 35 OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY
EVENING...BUT MAINLY IN THE 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. THEREFORE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SUPER
CELL TENDENCIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH SUPER CELL
POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS
MAIN TRIGGER...THE SHORTWAVE...WILL INCREASE UPWARD MOTION JUST AS
THE SUPER CELL THREAT STARTS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO OVERLAP...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IN OTHER WORDS THE QUICKER ANY DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL BE SEVERE. SPC KEEPS MAIN
TORNADO THREAT AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH WE ARE IN THE 2 PCT PROBABILITY AREA.

NAM SHOWS QPF DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING DURING THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST CONVECTION WAS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND RATHER SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS.
CORFIDI VECTORS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

700 MB LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST TIP OF WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH BEST LIFT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN
WEAK AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL BRING HIGH QPF POTENTIAL VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE KENOSHA
FORECAST SOUNDING SATURATED BELOW 500 MB. NAM SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL SHARS RAINFALL EVENT...ALTHOUGH 700 MB WINDS MAY BE TO
WESTERLY FOR A CLASSIC SOUNDING PROFILE.

12Z NAM SOUNDING SHOW 1500 J/KG RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED CAPE EVEN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DRYING IS STRONG...AND A CAP DOES
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GFS BRINGS
MORE QPF BACK WEST THAN NAM. MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE STILL BELOW 20
PERCENT...SO MAY STILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY. QPF IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DOES
BRING FROM 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF QPF. THIS AND THE RATHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE LENDS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS INTO THE LOWER CHANCE
CATEGORY AND MENTION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHES
INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING
ACROSS KMSN AND KUES. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD REACH KMKE AND KENW DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIMIT GUSTS.

MAIN ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. WENT WITH
VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS AFTER 22Z TO 23Z FRIDAY GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF STORMS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS TO REACH KMSN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY AT KMSN...AND AFTER 01Z
TO 02Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY AT KMSN...AND UNTIL 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES. WENT WITH PREVAILING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES...AND VFR
CEILINGS...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LEFT THUNDER IN PREVAILING GROUP UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY
FOR ANY LINGERING STORMS IN THE AREA.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY END BY LATE MORNING...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
THINK THEY WILL BE FREQUENT OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

GOOD MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
FREQUENTLY GUST TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-211000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE SD WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RAINFALL
REPORTS ARE ALSO NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-211000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

KAPELA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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