Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTERS ON WHETHER STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOW NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA MANAGES TO PUSH NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH LOW STRATUS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WITH EAST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. 12Z NAM FRONT REACHES NEAR ILLINOIS BORDER. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FRONT CREEPING NORTH AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
CLOUDS THINNING ALONG THE IL BORDER WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF ROCKFORD. DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ROCKFORD IL INDICATE SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL IN ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MB. CAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG WITH HELICITY
NEAR 200 EHI AROUND 1.5 AND LIFTED INDEX AT -4.3.

HELICITY ALONG WARM FRONT WILL BE HIGHER. HOWEVER FRONT MAY STAY A
LITTLE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE BASICALLY RIDES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY. MODELS ALL KEEP LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

18Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG CAP AROUND 750 MB WITH STRONG
DRYING ABOVE.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION NORTH OF BOUNDARY. EVEN SO 12Z NAM
ELEVATED CAPE AT MILWAUKEE AROUND 1200 J/KG. WITH 2 THSD FT COLD
LAYER WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 9 THSD FT IS LOW ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL
BEING PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. 850 MB JET INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL
ENOUGH 850 MB CONVERGENCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 1 AM. THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST 850 MB FLOW
TO THE SOUTH WOULD TEND TOWARD ADVANCING THE STATIONARY FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM QPF NOT TOO HIGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL
STAY WITH ESF AND INDIVIDUAL RIVER WATCHES...RATHER THAN FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. 12Z ECMWF HAS MAX PRECIP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE LESS...WITH NAM HAVING MAINLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEVER GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH DEEP SATURATED RATHER STABLE COOL LAYER
BELOW 750MB. COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AS LOW MOVES OFF.
MODELS SEEM TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER OFF A LITTLE TOO MUCH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH FROM WISCONSIN TO
MISSOURI AND PUSHES IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A WARM ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL LIQUID. WILL BRING
A MIX IN TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS.

PREFER GFS/ECMWF PRECIP OVER THE NAM. NAM WOULD INDICATE ENOUGH
PRECIP FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SHOWER CHANCE INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWER MOS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY. THEN
A MORE ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONCERN IS WEAK FRONT SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
APPEARS MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE QUICKER ON GFS...BUT HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. MAIN AFFECT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
925MB/850MB FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP DOWN
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z.
THAT BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER BY EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STALL OVER SE WI AND CONTINUE
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEVERE...ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER
FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY WIND AND HAIL THREAT. SEE MAIN
DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORE SEVERE INFORMATION.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS STATIONED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND MAY
GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI/IL BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GOING
BACK SOUTH. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
WED AT TAF SITES EXCEPT ENW. ENW WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SHIFT BACK NORTHEAST AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS BACK SOUTH.

RECENT RAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE.
FOG ADVECTING INLAND AT MKE AND OCCASIONALLY AS FAR AS UES AND ENW
DUE TO THE E/NE WINDS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT AND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN. CIGS/VSBYS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT
STABLE LAKE WILL KEEP STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO SFC. THEN
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY LATE WED MORNING...ALLOWING THOSE
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND GUSTS. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
358 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-072100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
358 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A STRONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL FOCUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.

LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MOST LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS
SHOULD SEE MODERATE RISES...BUT SOME SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE FOR A TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-072100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
358 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW MAY BE SEVERE. NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGHER WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE MET WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
CREATE WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
831 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

WIZ057-058-063-070200-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-
831 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST DANE COUNTY INTO
SOUTHEAST COLUMBIA AND WESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINDSOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EAST BRISTOL...       DEANSVILLE...         OTSEGO...
  DOYLESTOWN...         DANVILLE...           FALL RIVER...
  COLUMBUS...           SOUTH BEAVER DAM...   LEIPSIG...
  REESEVILLE...         LOWELL...             MINNESOTA JUNCTION...
  ASTICO...             JUNEAU DODGE AIRPORT...
  JUNEAU...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KUHLMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST BARABOO            43.48N 89.77W
04/06/2010  M1.25 INCH       SAUK               WI   OTHER FEDERAL

            AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE MEASURED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
            715 TO 745 PM CDT.

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             1 ENE SUN PRAIRIE       43.19N 89.21W
04/06/2010  M0.25 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WITH INITIAL RAIN BURST, LASTED ABOUT ONE MINUTE.

0836 PM     HAIL             W SUN PRAIRIE           43.18N 89.23W
04/06/2010  E0.25 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SEARS