Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT IS RETUNING NWD TOWARD NE IA AND NRN IL
WHILE THE LAKE BREEZE...AIDED BY A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT VIA LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR...ACCELERATES SWWD AWAY FROM THE LAKE COUNTIES. WARM
FRONT DURING THE EVENING SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD FROM SRN MN INTO SW
WI. INCREASING LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA OVER ERN SD AND SRN MN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRIGGER SVR CONVECTION OVER THAT REGION AND WILL EVOLVE
INTO A SVR MCS THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT FOR ERN
WI. MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MID LEVEL
DRY AIR...AND LARGE CAPE ON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALL
SUPPORT A SVR BOW ECHO. MCS TO LIKELY DIVE SSEWD AS IT ENTERS SRN
WI AS HIGHER CAPE VALUES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY WITH
SOME STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE. HAVE THUS KEPT SVR
WORDING OUT OF THE FAR EAST AND NE CWA.

AFTER MCS...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WORDING MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR TNT. ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...DRY WLY WINDS RETURN FOR SUN NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IS DEALING WITH
THUNDERSTORM TIMING. BRISK LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA WILL
BE DRIVING THE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO KMSN BY 05Z
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 07Z SUNDAY. MVFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW. ALL SITES COULD ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS.

KEPT VICINITY THUNDER MENTION IN TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY...AS COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. SOME QUESTION IF THIS WILL OCCUR...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIMIT MIXING
OF WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-271000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
402 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST
OF AN OXFORD...TO MADISON...TO MONROE LINE. AN EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK COULD EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS A BEAVER
DAM...TO PEWAUKEE...TO LAKE GENEVA LINE LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
COMPLEX MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-271000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
402 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1126 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

WIZ056-057-062-063-270530-
COLUMBIA-DANE-IOWA-SAUK-
1126 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WISCONSIN RIVER...

AT 1122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAUK CITY...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRING GREEN BY 1130 PM CDT...
  MAZOMANIE BY 1150 PM CDT...
  SAUK CITY AND PRAIRIE DU SAC BY MIDNIGHT CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FRANKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

WIZ056-057-063-270600-
COLUMBIA-DANE-SAUK-
1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY...

AT 1212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE WISCONSIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE WISCONSIN AND LODI BY 1220 AM CDT...
  I90/94 WI RIVER BRIDGE BY 1225 AM CDT...
  POYNETTE BY 1230 AM CDT...
  RIO AND PARDEEVILLE BY 1245 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

FRANKS