Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
244 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

VERY COMPLEX SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THIS FROM THE
POINT OF VIEW OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST LINE OF STORMS WILL BLAST
THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS BEHIND
THE FIRST...SHOULD ROLL THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. BUT THIS
SECOND ONE IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. THIS SECOND AREA DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE COLD
POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST LINE OF STORMS. THIS SECONDARY
STUFF IS ALL ELEVATED. IT/S ALSO IN THE VCNTY OF THE STALLED COLD
FRONT IN THAT AREA. IT MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND FRONTAL
IN NATURE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT
APPEARS IT MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED INTIALLY OVER WRN IA/ERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN MOVE EAST FROM THERE...MISSING US ALMOST
ENTIRELY. THIS LEADING CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD ALSO
WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE TOO MUCH THAT ANY MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HERE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE.
VERY INTERESTING TO BE SURE. WILL MAINTAIN REASONABLY HIGH POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN TAPER THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SFC FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z...BUT THE 925MB TEMPS
DON/T FALL OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT CLEARING
IN THE SUBSIDENCE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE LAST ROUND OF STORMS. COULD
WARM QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE COOLING AND DRYING OFF. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE
COULD SEE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT...DRIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
ZONAL OR AT LEAST WE SIT ON THE TOP SIDE OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES. RING OF FIRE SET UP COULD
RESULT IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ANY TIMING AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE TREND IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL TRACK
ACROSS AT LEAST FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS UNCERTAIN. TIMING LOOKS LIKE TSTORM ARRIVAL
AT MSN WILL BE AROUND 3 PM...AND MKE AROUND 5 PM.

ANOTHER AREA OR LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH ACCOMPANYING LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS/HAIL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS HIGH WITH THE EVENING SYSTEM IF THE AFTERNOON
SYSTEM CAUSES THE AREA TO STABILIZE. TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 7 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

&&

.MARINE...PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 5
PM...AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES SRN WI.  WINDSPEEDS WL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT AND MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS...BUT
WL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
617 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-191130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
617 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS THAT MAY PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW LARGE
HAIL REPORTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IOWA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING THE THREAT OF AREAL AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-191130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
617 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIND AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SATURDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE

MBK

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