Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MORE
PROBABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE KICKS OFF SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 500
J/KG ALONG WITH DECENT REMAINING COLUMN MOISTURE...SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DO SEEM REASONABLE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE
THERE WILL BE TODAY...BUT 925 TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WI ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE DAY FRIDAY
AS MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A FASTER SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT GREAT. A COUPLE WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW SEEM PROBABLE AT
SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER QUITE A
BIT WITH WHEN THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT WISCONSIN. LEANED TOWARD
THE HPC SOLUTION...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS. KEPT CHANCE OF POPS LOW DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...A VFR KIND OF DAY. SOME CAVEATS BELOW.
FIRSTLY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
PRIMARILY GOT INTO THE NORTH SIDE STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 12Z WED.
WITH THE TROF/CDFNT EXITING AND WINDS TURNING NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST...IN ADDITION TO MOIST CONDITIONS DUE TO RAINFALL...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING THE MORNING.
ALSO...NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LAKE OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME SURPRISE
IFR CIGS FOR A BRIEF TIME AT KMKE AND POSSIBLY KENW. THIS WIND SHIFT
WOULD OCCUR TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW THIS
WILL HAPPEN...BUT IT DOES DESERVE A HEADS-UP.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD HELP SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING TODAY.  GENERALLY QUIET WITH VFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
433 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-030945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE FRIDAY...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-030945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE FRIDAY.

DAVIS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
418 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

WIZ057-063-022145-
COLUMBIA-DANE-
418 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN DANE COUNTY...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF WAUNAKEE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE FOREST AND WINDSOR BY 430 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

KUHLMAN

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