River Flood Warning 51, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING RAIN AND WINDS TODAY...COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO
HIGH.

COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE EAST BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. MOST OF THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH IT. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING...WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHING THROUGH THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

MAIN ISSUE IS WITH EXPECTED WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DEEP LOW MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30 KNOT RANGE AT 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MIXING
DOWN...CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FEEL THAT GUSTS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ONE FOR NOW. DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SITES REACH CRITERIA.

WINDS TO RELAX TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR NEED TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
FORECAST AT EASTERN SITES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN AS
SURFACE/850MB TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL PICK RIGHT BACK UP BY
18Z AS POCKET OF 50KT 850MB WINDS...CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON KABR AND
KFSD VAD WINDS...CROSS REGION. CLOSE CALL ON LLWS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS STRONGER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT.

WILL ALSO TAKE OUT PRECIPITATION AFTER SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS
MODELS KEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH 500 MB LOW NORTH OF TAF SITES.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST TREND AND WILL BE KEPT.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING TIMING WILL BE KEPT FOR NOW...THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT EXTENDING IF 1000 FT WINDS REMAIN ABOVE
35 KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW 1000 FT WINDS EASING AROUND
00Z...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. GALE WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WITH FREQUENT GUST POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...09/REM

UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS AND EDIT LONG TERM
SECTION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-250945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
WEST WINDS THAT WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AFTER WINDS FALL BELOW GALE CRITERIA
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240700-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
1132 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT...WILL REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL ARE BLOWING
AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. WE ARE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE WINDS JUST 1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND THAT
ARE MOVING AT 55 TO 65 MPH.

AS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ROLL THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 4 TO
6 HOURS...SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO
THE GROUND RESULTING IN BRIEF GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH.

LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED AND THOSE TRAVELING IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MADISON BY 2 AM AND THE MILWAUKEE
AREA BY 4 TO 5 AM. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

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