River Flood Warning 50, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ASSESSING ANY PRECIP CHANCES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...THEN INCOMING DRIER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXES STILL TO THE WEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE. MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING. A
FEW SHRA HAVE POPPED UP HERE AND THERE. THE FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...850 TO SURFACE AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH OF CAPE ABOVE 10K
FEET. VERY DRY AIR THROUGH A GOOD DEPTH OF THE SOUNDING. GFS
SOUNDINGS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL FOCUS TO OUR NORTHWEST. BOTTOM LINE...NOT MUCH REASON TO
STRAY FROM GOING FORECAST AND THE LOW MAV/MET POPS.

TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS INTO THE AREA LATE ALONG WITH THE 850
TROUGH...SO WILL NEED SMALL POPS TO HANDLE THIS. THESE FEATURES NOT
COMING THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY TIME SO WILL NOT GO
TOO ROBUST ON POPS.

SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA. BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORTICITY. SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY AND
STABLE SO WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST INTACT.

MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROADLY CYCLONIC WNW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH DRY AIRMASS. GFS
SOUNDING SHOWS JUST A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND 7K FEET...WHILE NAM
BONE DRY.

TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL HOLD. NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO WITHIN
THE WNW UPPER FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW
00Z ECMWF IMPLYING THE HIGH WILL STILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUR GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG.
HOWEVER AC/CI SHIELD FROM MCS MOVING ACROSS IL SHOULD KEEP IFR
FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FROM THE MCS. ELSEWHERE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGE SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRYING.  NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO LIFT/TRIGGER
DUE TO WEAK FLOW.  GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE EXTENSIVE CAP
AND CAPE OF AROUND 1000 TO 1700 J/KG.  A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUT STILL EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRYING.  WILL LEAVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

TONIGHT MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOES PUSH INTO
WISCONSIN.  AS SUCH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...BUT
STILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

PATCHY IFR/LIFR CIGS/FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW BUT EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FOG AREAS RATHER PATCHY EARLY THIS
MORNING.

FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST SO ANY FOG WOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ALONG
SHORE AREAS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-150845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
344 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-150845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
344 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

HENTZ

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