River Flood Warning 47, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...MEDIUM FCST CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NT.

N-S WIND SHIFT LINE SEEN ON RADAR IN FAR ERN WI IS MOVING TOWARD
LAKE MI AND THE LAKE BREEZE. ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS CONVERGENT ZONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER
IS BECOMING MORE SCT WITH SOME HEATING AND MIXING OCCURRING. HIGH
PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION TNT. THE
COMBINATION OF LGT NLY WINDS LOWERING DEWPOINTS A LITTLE...AND
WARM SOIL TEMPS ARE FACTORS THAT WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WITHIN MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS SUPPORTS IT. WILL MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR NOW
AND HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

FOG TO LINGER INTO SUN AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY. SSWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO MON WITH WARM TEMPS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WHILE A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
CENTRAL USA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR
AREAS WEST OF KMSN FOR MON AFT WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE FCST MON NT
THROUGH TUE NT. A LLJ AND WARM FRONT WILL SET UP OVER IA WITH BEST
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO REMAIN SOUTH...THUS CHANCE POPS VERSUS
SOMETHING HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED INTO
EARLY FRI WITH STNRY FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. A PRESSURE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL THEN BRING THE
FRONT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS ON SAT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS ACROSS THE WEST WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECTING STRATUS TO THE WEST
TO DECREASE AS WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS MOMENT IS HOW LONG CLOUDS TAKE TO CLEAR IN THE
EAST...AS LATER CLEARING WOULD INHIBIT THE FOG POTENTIAL.
OVERALL...IFR VSBYS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO GO EVEN LOWER. HESITANT TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE
TAFS YET...UNTIL CLEARING SEEMS MORE CERTAIN IN THE EAST. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS THIS EVENING.

FOG WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-012015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD FOG AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG
WILL BE IN RIVER VALLEYS SUCH AS THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND
IN LOW LYING MARSHY AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-012015-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN.

DDV

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