River Flood Warning 41, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

.UPDATE...

18Z NAM HAS A MORE WEST 850 MB JET AND LATE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3
AM MAINLY ALONG ILLINOIS BORDER.

HOWEVER LATEST 00Z NAM HAS A MORE IMPRESSIVE 850 MB JET OF 50
KNOTS OVER FAR SE KANSAS AT 06Z WITH NOSE OF JET INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. THIS SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS RATHER QUICKLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
ALSO 00Z NAM SEEMS TO PUSH SOUTH DAKOTA MCS QUICKLY EAST. WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS NAM BRINGS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF QPF BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.

AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NOW INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
00Z 4 KM WRF AND LATEST HRRR ALL INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY
AND PUSH THEM INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND 06Z. HRRR TAKES
THESE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

UNFORTUNATELY APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

06/HENTZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS SQUARELY ON ASSESSING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY RECOVERING WITH CAPES INCREASING THOUGH CAPPING/CIN
STILL PRETTY STRONG. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
SOUTH CLOSER TO CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY. THE OTHER FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS IOWA WHERE 850 LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO TAKE AIM AT
WITH BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACHING. THE 850 JET WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH PW'S APPROACHING 200% OF
NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST AND 850 DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. WARM
CLOUD DEPTH PROGGD TO BE HIGH. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM ALL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS AFTER 6Z ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND LOCALES
SOUTH IN THE MORE PRIME LOCATION. THE HRRR MODEL KEEPS ALL
CONVECTION FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH THEIR QPF DID NOT HANDLE
LAST NIGHTS EVENT VERY WELL. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH CWA
WIDE BUT IMPLY THE SOUTHERN CWA IS MOST VULNERABLE. ANY CONVECTION
OF REASONABLE STRENGTH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. HPC NOW BOOSTING THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE HIGH RISK CATEGORY. 850 FRONT AND UPPER WAVE
TAKE TIL THE END OF DAY TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST SO WILL HAVE CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT 12Z ECMWF SHOWS RENEWED CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 MILLIBAR HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT THIS PERIOD. A RELATIVE
COOL POCKET WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE
14-16C RANGE. WITH THE SURFACE/850 MILLIBAR ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS.
GETTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THAT A WAVE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN A CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN
CIRCULATION AROUND UPPER RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM WNW FLOW AND
PUSH A PACKAGE OF VORTICITY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS PERIOD. AT TIMES THE RIDGE APPEARS TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY
INTO WISCONSIN...BUT FOR THE BALANCE WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE CIRCULATION AND THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RING OF
FIRE TYPE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME.

850 MILLIBAR MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED ON TUESDAY...THOUGH QPF
APPEARS LACKING WITH THIS...BUT WAVE RIDES DOWN THE FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD BOLSTER POPS A BIT...SO WILL LEAVE TUESDAY DRY AND
GO WITH POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE EVENING.

BEST CHANCES FOR PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS COMES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY UNTIL AROUND 15Z SATURDAY...WILL
EXPECTED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
NEAR A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. STANDING WATER
REMAINS IN MANY AREAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ONLY WORSEN
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...OR ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE...IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF A WESTFIELD...TO
MADISON...TO BELOIT LINE...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A FOND
DU LAC...TO MADISON...TO DARLINGTON LINE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA...HELPING GENERATE THE STORMS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST OF A MILWAUKEE TO MONROE LINE.

MANY RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

LMZ643>646-240945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 33 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH
OF NORTHPOINT LIGHTHOUSE...AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TORNADO          3 S WHITEWATER          42.79N 88.74W
07/22/2010  F1               WALWORTH           WI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO. 2.8 S WHITEWATER TO 2.5 NW TIBBETS. 90MPH
            WINDS. 2 BARNS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. MINOR CORN DAMAGE.
            EST 50 TALL PINE TREES SNAPPED. 100S OF TREES WITH SOME
            DAMAGE. 832PM TO 840PM.

&&

PZABEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW ABELLS CORNERS    42.75N 88.56W
07/22/2010                   WALWORTH           WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DOZENS OF TREES DOWN. A COUPLE OF THEM DOWN ON HOMES.

&&

PZABEL