Gale Warning 14, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON
BACKSIDE OF PASSING STORM GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF
STORM HELPING BRING COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS NOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN A SIMILAR
FASHION THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING BLOWING SNOW WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
IN THE WEST. THUS...WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THE WESTERN HALF
THIS EVENING...SO NO ADVISORY THERE.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP 925MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BRING LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
INLAND...AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO -20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR A BIT COLDER ACROSS
ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THUS...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM 06Z TO 15Z MONDAY FOR THIS AREA.

COLD AND WINDY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. 925MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE MID TEENS LAKESIDE.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. FEW CLOUDS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. SLOW TEMP MODIFICATION
OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OF
THE AREA.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE EJECTS EAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS PERIOD. A WEAK ELONGATED
SFC TROF TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISENTROPICALLY...THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS REALLY DROP...BUT THE FORCING IS WEAK. THERE
WILL BE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE ARRIVAL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
CHCY POPS CONTINUE AND JUST LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF INCHES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CWA.

.FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...TRACKS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. OVERALL FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND
GENERALLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE CWA. WILL LINGER SMALL POPS ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES...WILL COME
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO END...WITH THE LAST CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY
01Z MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS...AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS...HIGHEST AT KMKE AND KENW. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

WINDS SHOULD LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KMSN AND
KUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY...AND A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT...AND WILL
SLOWLY RELAX MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS FALLING BACK TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY HIGH WAVES OF UP TO 14 TO 18 FEET
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FREEZING SPRAY MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>059-062>065-067>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT RANGE/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
LONG RANGE...DAVIS

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